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Banking stress test effects on returns and risks

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  • Sahin, Cenkhan
  • de Haan, Jakob
  • Neretina, Ekaterina

Abstract

We investigate the effects of the announcement and the disclosure of the clarification, methodology, and outcomes of the U.S. banking stress tests on banks’ equity prices, credit risk, systematic risk, and systemic risk. We find evidence that stress tests have moved stock and credit markets following the disclosure of stress test results. We also find that banks’ systematic risk, as measured by betas, declined in nearly all years after the publication of stress test results. Our evidence suggests that stress tests affect systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Sahin, Cenkhan & de Haan, Jakob & Neretina, Ekaterina, 2020. "Banking stress test effects on returns and risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:117:y:2020:i:c:s0378426620301096
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105843
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    3. Petr Jakubik & Saida Teleu, 2024. "Do insurance stress tests matter? Evidence from the EU-wide insurance stress tests," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(3), pages 1-27, September.
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    5. Wang, Wei & Xu, Huifu & Ma, Tiejun, 2023. "Optimal scenario-dependent multivariate shortfall risk measure and its application in risk capital allocation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 322-347.
    6. Christos Floros & Efstathios Karpouzis & Nikolaos Daskalakis, 2024. "Stock Markets and Stress Test Announcements: Evidence from European Banks," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-11, July.
    7. Paul Glasserman & Mike Li, 2025. "Should Bank Stress Tests Be Fair?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(1), pages 262-278, January.
    8. D. Georgoutsos & G. Moratis, 2021. "On the informative value of the EU-wide stress tests and the determinants of banks’ stock return reactions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 977-1008, November.
    9. Jondeau, Eric & Khalilzadeh, Amir, 2022. "Predicting the stressed expected loss of large U.S. banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Diego Moreno & Tuomas Takalo, 2025. "Precision of Public Information Disclosures, Banks' Stability, and Welfare," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(7), pages 1729-1763, October.
    11. Iorgova, Silvia & Ross, Chase P., 2023. "Investor information and bank instability during the European debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Bank for International Settlements, 2025. "Lessons on supervisory effectiveness - a literature review," BCBS Working Papers 45, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Lambertini, Luisa & Mukherjee, Abhik, 2022. "Stress tests and loan pricing—Evidence from syndicated loans," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    14. Paul Glasserman & Mike Li, 2022. "Should Bank Stress Tests Be Fair?," Papers 2207.13319, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    15. García, Raffi E. & Steele, Suzanne, 2022. "Stress testing and bank business patterns: A regression discontinuity study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    16. Salazar, Yadira & Merello, Paloma & Zorio-Grima, Ana, 2023. "IFRS 9, banking risk and COVID-19: Evidence from Europe," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
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    18. Paul Konietschke & Steven Ongena & Aurea Ponte Marques, 2022. "Stress tests and capital requirement disclosures: do they impact banks' lending and risk-taking decisions?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-60, Swiss Finance Institute.
    19. Abad, Pilar & Robles, M.-Dolores & Alonso Orts, Carlos, 2023. "Stress testing programs and credit risk opacity of banks: USA vs Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    20. Carin Cruijsen & Maurice Doll & Jakob Haan, 2025. "What drives trust in the financial sector supervisor? New empirical evidence for the Netherlands," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 173-195, February.
    21. Cuzzola, Angelo & Barbieri, Claudio & Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2025. "Gaming the test? Window-dressing and portfolio similarity around the EU-wide stress tests," Working Paper Series 3094, European Central Bank.
    22. Durrani, Agha & Ongena, Steven & Ponte Marques, Aurea, 2024. "Decoding market reactions: The certification role of EU-wide stress tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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