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Backtesting European Stress Tests

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  • Thomas Philippon
  • Pierre Pessarossi
  • Boubacar Camara

Abstract

We provide a first evaluation of the quality of banking stress tests in the European Union. We use stress tests scenarios and banks’ estimated losses to recover bank level exposures to macroeconomic factors. Once macro outcomes are realized, we predict banks’ losses and compare them to actual losses. We find that stress tests are informative and unbiased on average. Model-based losses are good predictors of realized losses and of banks’ equity returns around announcements of macroeconomic news. When we perform our tests for the Union as a whole, we do not detect biases in the construction of the scenarios, or in the estimated losses across banks of different sizes and ownership structures. There is, however, some evidence that exposures are underestimated in countries with ex-ante weaker banking systems. Our results have implications for the modeling of credit losses, quality controls of supervision, and the political economy of financial regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Philippon & Pierre Pessarossi & Boubacar Camara, 2017. "Backtesting European Stress Tests," NBER Working Papers 23083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23083
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    Cited by:

    1. Aurélien Violon & Dominique Durant & Oana Toader, 2017. "The Impact of the Identification of GSIBs on their Business Model," Débats économiques et financiers 33, Banque de France.
    2. F. Borel-Mathurin & S. Loisel & J. Segers, 2017. "Reevaluation of the capital charge in insurance after a large shock: empirical and theoretical views," Débats économiques et financiers 32, Banque de France.
    3. Robert McKeown, 2017. "How vulnerable is the Canadian banking system to fire-sales?," Working Papers 1381, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    4. J. Hombert & V. Lyonnet, 2017. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing in Life Insurance: Evidence from France," Débats économiques et financiers 30, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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