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Runs versus Lemons: Information Disclosure and Fiscal Capacity

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  • Faria-e-Castro, Miguel
  • Martinez, Joseba
  • Philippon, Thomas

Abstract

We characterize the optimal use of information disclosure and fiscal backstops during financial crises. In our model, financial crises force governments to choose between runs and lemons. Revealing information about banks’ assets reduces adverse selection in credit markets, but it can also create inefficient runs on weak banks. A fiscal backstop mitigates this risk and allows the government to pursue a high disclosure strategy. A government with a strong fiscal position is more likely to run informative stress tests than a government with a weak fiscal position. As a result, such a government is also less likely to rely on outright bailouts.

Suggested Citation

  • Faria-e-Castro, Miguel & Martinez, Joseba & Philippon, Thomas, 2015. "Runs versus Lemons: Information Disclosure and Fiscal Capacity," CEPR Discussion Papers 10614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10614
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    Cited by:

    1. Leitner, Yaron & Yilmaz, Bilge, 2019. "Regulating a model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 251-268.
    2. Orlov, Dmitry & Zryumov, Pavel & Skrzypacz, Andrzej, 2017. "Design of Macro-prudential Stress Tests," Research Papers 3548, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    3. Georgoutsos, Dimitris & Moratis, George, 2020. "On the informative value of the EU-wide stress tests and the determinants of banks’ stock return reactions," MPRA Paper 62773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Alvarez, Fernando & Barlevy, Gadi, 2021. "Mandatory disclosure and financial contagion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Thomas Philippon & Pierre Pessarossi & Boubacar Camara, 2017. "Backtesting European Stress Tests," NBER Working Papers 23083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Cecilia Parlatore, 2018. "Designing Stress Scenarios," 2018 Meeting Papers 1090, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Ryuichiro Izumi, 2021. "Opacity: Insurance and Fragility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 146-169, April.
    8. Emanuele Brancati & Marco Macchiavelli, 2015. "The Role of Dispersed Information in Pricing Default: Evidence from the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-79, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Gabriel Jiménez & José-Luis Peydró & Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Burning Money? Government Lending in a Credit Crunch," Working Papers 984, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    10. Yaron Leitner & Basil Williams, 2018. "Model Secrecy and Stress Tests," 2018 Meeting Papers 566, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Shapiro, Joel & Zeng, Jing, 2019. "Stress Testing and Bank Lending," CEPR Discussion Papers 13907, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Zhang, Simpson & van der Schaar, Mihaela, 2020. "Reputational dynamics in financial networks during a crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. Carlos Corona & Lin Nan & Gaoqing Zhang, 2019. "The Coordination Role of Stress Tests in Bank Risk‐Taking," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1161-1200, December.
    14. Vincent Maurin, 2016. "Liquidity Fluctuations in Over the Counter Markets," 2016 Meeting Papers 218, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Walther, Ansgar & White, Lucy, 2019. "Rules versus Discretion in Bank Resolution," CEPR Discussion Papers 14048, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Goldstein, Itay & Leitner, Yaron, 2018. "Stress tests and information disclosure," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 34-69.
    17. Pacicco, Fausto & Vena, Luigi & Venegoni, Andrea, 2020. "Communication and financial supervision: How does disclosure affect market stability?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-15.
    18. Sara Negrelli, 2018. "Bubbles and Persuasion with Second Order Uncertainty," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1876, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    19. Negrelli, Sara, 2020. "Bubbles and persuasion with uncertainty over market sentiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 67-85.
    20. Itay Goldstein & Yaron Leitner, 2015. "Stress tests and information disclosure," Working Papers 15-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    21. Gary Gorton & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2020. "Fighting Crises with Secrecy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 218-245, October.
    22. Michal Kowalik, 2016. "Opacity and Disclosure in Short-Term Wholesale Funding Markets," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 16-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    23. Christian König-Kersting & Stefan T. Trautmann & Razvan Vlahu, 2020. "Bank instability: Interbank linkages and the role of disclosure," DNB Working Papers 665, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    24. Glode, Vincent & Opp, Christian C. & Zhang, Xingtan, 2018. "Voluntary disclosure in bilateral transactions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 652-688.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bailouts; credit guarantees; deposit insurance; fiscal backstop; stress tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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