IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Expectativas cambiarias, selección adversa y liquidez

  • Jimmy Melo


    (El Colegio de México. Centro de Estudios Económicos. México DF, México)

Registered author(s):

    Este artículo evalúa las implicaciones en el corto plazo de las expectativas cambiarias en mercados de crédito, afectados por problemas de selección adversa, y modela un mercado de crédito donde los contratos de deuda son contingentes en el ingreso de los prestatarios. Los activos riesgosos que estos últimos poseen están denominados en moneda extranjera y su valor en libros, estipulado en los contratos de deuda, se traduce usando las expectativas sobre el tipo de cambio basadas en las premisas del análisis técnico. Este artículo muestra que la información pública, generada por la tendencia adversa del tipo de cambio, mueve al mercado de crédito hacia un equilibrio donde la inversión y el crédito se contraen, y definen el espacio para la intervención del gobierno. En este contexto, el gobierno responde a la información generada por la tendencia del tipo de cambio e incrementa el tamaño de programa, a fin de estabilizar las variaciones en la tasa de interés, lo cual evita que la inversión y la liquidez se reduzcan.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia in its journal Ensayos Revista de Economia.

    Volume (Year): XXXIII (2014)
    Issue (Month): 1 (May)
    Pages: 27-62

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxiii:y:2014:i:1:p:27-62
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Avenida Lazaro Cardenas 4600 Ote., Fraccionamiento Residencial Las Torres, C.P. 64930. Monterrey, Nuevo Leon. México.

    Phone: +52 (81) 8329 4150
    Fax: +52 (81) 8342 2897
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information: Email:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Thomas Philippon & Vasiliki Skreta, 2011. "Optimal Interventions in Markets with Adverse Selection," Working Papers 11-11, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Hyun Song Shin & Jeffery D. Amato, 2004. "Public and Private Information in Monetary Policy Models," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 59, Econometric Society.
    3. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
    4. MINELLI, Enrico & MODICA, Salvatore, 2003. "Credit market failures and policy," CORE Discussion Papers 2003093, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2006. "Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management; Issues and Approaches for Firms," IMF Working Papers 06/255, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Nachman, David C & Noe, Thomas H, 1994. "Optimal Design of Securities under Asymmetric Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 1-44.
    7. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1991. "Introduction to "Financial Markets and Financial Crises"," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 1-10 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
    9. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, 02.
    10. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 3400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Corbett, Jenny & Mitchell, Janet, 2000. "Banking Crises and Bank Rescues: The Effect of Reputation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 474-512, August.
    12. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2003. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 10071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Antoine Faure-Grimaud, 2004. "Public Trading and Private Incentives," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 985-1014.
    14. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    15. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K Rose, 1999. "Noise trading and exchange rate regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Stavros Peristiani, 1998. "The Growing Reluctance To Borrow At The Discount Window: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 611-620, November.
    17. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Allocation of Credit and Financial Collapse," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(3), pages 455-470.
    18. Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie & Holthausen, Cornelia, 2009. "Liquidity hoarding and interbank market spreads: the role of counterparty risk," Working Paper Series 1126, European Central Bank.
    19. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    20. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "The failure mechanics of dealer banks," BIS Working Papers 301, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Thomas Philippon, 2010. "Debt Overhang and Recapitalization in Closed and Open Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 157-178, August.
    22. Narasimhan Jegadeesh, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, 04.
    23. Peter DeMarzo & Darrell Duffie, 1999. "A Liquidity-Based Model of Security Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 65-100, January.
    24. Mitchell, Janet, 2001. "Bad Debts and the Cleaning of Banks' Balance Sheets: An Application to Transition Economies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, January.
    25. Augustin Landier & Kenichi Ueda, 2009. "The Economics of Bank Restructuring; Understanding the Options," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/12, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Hau, Harald, 1998. "Competitive Entry and Endogenous Risk in the Foreign Exchange Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 757-87.
    27. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1991. "Financial Markets and Financial Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glen91-1, September.
    28. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    29. Ashima Goyal, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Middling Through," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 153-175.
    30. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    31. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Philippe Aghion & Patrick Bolton & Jean Tirole, 2004. "Exit Options in Corporate Finance: Liquidity versus Incentives," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(3), pages 327-353.
    33. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1986. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 24-38, Supplemen.
    34. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    35. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-45, July.
    36. Jean-Charles Rochet & Lars A. Stole, 2002. "Nonlinear Pricing with Random Participation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 277-311.
    37. Philippe Aghion, Patrick Bolton & Steven Fries, 1999. "Optimal Design of Bank Bailouts: The Case of Transition Economies," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 155(1), pages 51-, March.
    38. Cavaglia Stefano & Verschoor Willem F. C. & Wolff Christian C. P., 1993. "Asian Exchange Rate Expectations," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 57-77, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxiii:y:2014:i:1:p:27-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dora María Vega Facio)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.