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March madness in Wall Street: (What) does the market learn from stress tests?

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  • Fernandes, Marcelo
  • Igan, Deniz
  • Pinheiro, Marcelo

Abstract

Annual stress tests have become a regular part of the supervisors’ toolkit following the global financial crisis. We investigate their market implications in the United States by looking at price and trade reactions as well as information asymmetry and uncertainty indicators around the tests, and bank behavior after the tests. The evidence we present supports the notion that there is important new information in stress tests. This is particularly the case during crisis. Moreover, public disclosure appears not to adversely affect informational asymmetries and uncertainties. Importantly, public disclosure of stress test results (and methodology) does not seem to have reduced private incentives to generate information or to have led to distorted incentives.

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  • Fernandes, Marcelo & Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo, 2020. "March madness in Wall Street: (What) does the market learn from stress tests?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:112:y:2020:i:c:s0378426617302753
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.11.005
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    Cited by:

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    3. Thomas Ian Schneider & Philip E. Strahan & Jun Yang, 2020. "Bank Stress Testing: Public Interest or Regulatory Capture?," NBER Working Papers 26887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lukas Ahnert & Pascal Vogt & Volker Vonhoff & Florian Weigert, 2020. "Regulatory stress testing and bank performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1449-1488, November.
    5. Cecilia Parlatore, 2018. "Designing Stress Scenarios," 2018 Meeting Papers 1090, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Beutel, Johannes & Metiu, Norbert & Stockerl, Valentin, 2021. "Toothless tiger with claws? Financial stability communication, expectations, and risk-taking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 53-69.
    7. Thomas Philippon & Pierre Pessarossi & Boubacar Camara, 2017. "Backtesting European Stress Tests," NBER Working Papers 23083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Iorgova, Silvia & Ross, Chase P., 2023. "Investor information and bank instability during the European debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Paul Glasserman & Mike Li, 2022. "Should Bank Stress Tests Be Fair?," Papers 2207.13319, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    10. García, Raffi E. & Steele, Suzanne, 2022. "Stress testing and bank business patterns: A regression discontinuity study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Luu, Hiep Ngoc & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The Impact of Supervisory Stress Tests on Bank Ex-Ante Risk-Taking Behaviour: Empirical Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Paul Konietschke & Steven Ongena & Aurea Ponte Marques, 2022. "Stress tests and capital requirement disclosures: do they impact banks' lending and risk-taking decisions?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-60, Swiss Finance Institute.
    13. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques, 2016. "Stock Market Liquidity in Chile," IMF Working Papers 2016/223, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2021. "Lending Standards and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Loan Survey Releases," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202131, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Flannery, Mark & Hirtle, Beverly & Kovner, Anna, 2017. "Evaluating the information in the federal reserve stress tests," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-18.
    16. Andrew F. Haughwout & Donald P. Morgan & Michael Neubauer & Maxim L. Pinkovskiy & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2022. "Nonconforming Preferences: Jumbo Mortgage Lending and Large Bank Stress Tests," Staff Reports 1029, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Lazzari, Valter & Vena, Luigi & Venegoni, Andrea, 2017. "Stress tests and asset quality reviews of banks: A policy announcement tool," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 86-98.
    18. Ferretti, Riccardo & Venturelli, Valeria & Azzaretto, Alessandro, 2023. "Does individual SREP results reveal real news?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    19. Nguyen, Thach Vu Hong & Ahmed, Shamim & Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Onali, Enrico, 2020. "Do stress tests affect bank liquidity creation?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Cortés, Kristle R. & Demyanyk, Yuliya & Li, Lei & Loutskina, Elena & Strahan, Philip E., 2020. "Stress tests and small business lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 260-279.
    21. Guerrieri, Luca & Modugno, Michele, 2024. "The information content of stress test announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    22. Durrani, Agha & Ongena, Steven & Ponte Marques, Aurea, 2022. "The certification role of the EU-wide stress testing exercises in the stock market. What can we learn from the stress tests (2014-2021)?," Working Paper Series 2711, European Central Bank.
    23. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Minnick, Kristina & Schorno, Patrick J. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2020. "An examination of bank behavior around Federal Reserve stress tests," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stress testing; Capital requirements; Public disclosure; Information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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