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Supervisory stress tests

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Abstract

This article describes the background, design choices and particular details of stress tests used as part of an overall supervisory regime; that is, their formal integration into the process of the ongoing prudential supervision of banks and other large financial institutions. We then describe how the U.S. CCAR/DFAST regime is designed and what that means for the macroprudential vs. microprudential nature of the U.S. exercises. We argue routine stress tests have the potential to substantially change the nature of the supervisory process. In addition, we argue that a great deal depends on the philosophy underpinning modeling decisions, which has not received as much attention as scenario design, disclosure or other stress test design choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Beverly Hirtle & Andreas Lehnert, 2014. "Supervisory stress tests," Staff Reports 696, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:696
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    1. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    2. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott Fung & Robert Loveland, 2020. "When do informed traders acquire and trade on informational advantage? Evidence from Federal Reserve stress tests," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1459-1485, October.
    2. Hale, Galina & Lopez, Jose A., 2019. "Monitoring banking system connectedness with big data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 203-220.
    3. Flannery, Mark & Hirtle, Beverly & Kovner, Anna, 2017. "Evaluating the information in the federal reserve stress tests," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Fernandes, Marcelo & Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo, 2020. "March madness in Wall Street: (What) does the market learn from stress tests?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Robert Clark & Shaoteng Li, 2022. "The Strategic Response of Banks to Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from Mortgage Stress Tests in Canada [LIBOR manipulation?]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 187-216.
    6. Ivan Marinovic & Martin Szydlowski, 2019. "Monitor Reputation and Transparency," 2019 Meeting Papers 125, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Christoph Aymanns & J. Doyne Farmer & Alissa M. Keinniejenhuis & Thom Wetzer, 2017. "Models of Financial Stability and their Application in Stress Tests," Working Papers on Finance 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    8. Dissem, Sonia & Lobez, Frederic, 2020. "Correlation between the 2014 EU-wide stress tests and the market-based measures of systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Natalia Tente & Natalja Von Westernhagen & Ulf Slopek, 2019. "M‐PRESS‐CreditRisk: Microprudential and Macroprudential Capital Requirements for Credit Risk under Systemic Stress," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1923-1961, October.
    10. Gu, Jiadong, 2023. "Optimal stress tests and liquidation cost," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Wu, Deming & Fang, Ming & Wang, Qing, 2018. "An empirical study of bank stress testing for auto loans," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 79-89.
    12. Thomas L. Hogan & Neil R. Meredith, 2016. "Risk and risk-based capital of U.S. bank holding companies," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 86-112, February.
    13. Nguyen, Thach Vu Hong & Ahmed, Shamim & Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Onali, Enrico, 2020. "Do stress tests affect bank liquidity creation?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Carboni, Marika & Fiordelisi, Franco & Ricci, Ornella & Lopes, Francesco Saverio Stentella, 2017. "Surprised or not surprised? The investors’ reaction to the comprehensive assessment preceding the launch of the banking union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 122-132.
    15. Calem, Paul & Correa, Ricardo & Lee, Seung Jung, 2020. "Prudential policies and their impact on credit in the United States," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    16. Mitchell Berlin, 2015. "Disclosure of stress test results," Working Papers 15-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    17. David M. Arseneau, 2020. "How Would U.S. Banks Fare in a Negative Interest Rate Environment?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 269-308, October.
    18. Arnould, Guillaume & Dehmej, Salim, 2016. "Is the European banking system robust? An evaluation through the lens of the ECB׳s Comprehensive Assessment," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 126-144.
    19. Peterson K. Ozili, 2020. "Does competence of central bank governors influence financial stability?," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, December.
    20. Ozili, Peterson K, 2020. "Does competence of central bank governors influence financial stability?," MPRA Paper 102042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Braouezec, Yann & Wagalath, Lakshithe, 2019. "Strategic fire-sales and price-mediated contagion in the banking system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(3), pages 1180-1197.
    22. Luu, Hiep Ngoc & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The Impact of Supervisory Stress Tests on Bank Ex-Ante Risk-Taking Behaviour: Empirical Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    23. Rhys M. Bidder & Raffaella Giacomini & Andrew McKenna, 2016. "Stress Testing with Misspecified Models," Working Paper Series 2016-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stress tests; bank capital;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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