IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/338.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

BASEL III: Long-term impact on economic performance and fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo Angelini
  • Laurent Clerc
  • Vasco Cúrdia
  • Leonardo Gambacorta
  • Andrea Gerali
  • Alberto Locarno
  • Roberto Motto
  • Werner Roeger
  • Skander Van den Heuvel
  • Jan Vlcek

Abstract

We assess the long-term economic impact of the new regulatory standards (the Basel III reform), answering the following questions. (1) What is the impact of the reform on long-term economic performance? (2) What is the impact of the reform on economic fluctuations? (3) What is the impact of the adoption of countercyclical capital buffers on economic fluctuations? The main results are the following. (1) Each percentage point increase in the capital ratio causes a median 0.09 percent decline in the level of steady state output, relative to the baseline. The impact of the new liquidity regulation is of a similar order of magnitude, at 0.08 percent. This paper does not estimate the benefits of the new regulation in terms of reduced frequency and severity of financial crisis, analysed in Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS, 2010b). (2) The reform should dampen output volatility; the magnitude of the effect is heterogeneous across models; the median effect is modest. (3) The adoption of countercyclical capital buffers could have a more sizeable dampening effect on output volatility. These conclusions are fully consistent with those of reports by the Long-term Economic Impact group (BCBS, 2010b) and Macro Assessment Group (MAG, 2010b).

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Angelini & Laurent Clerc & Vasco Cúrdia & Leonardo Gambacorta & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno & Roberto Motto & Werner Roeger & Skander Van den Heuvel & Jan Vlcek, 2011. "BASEL III: Long-term impact on economic performance and fluctuations," BIS Working Papers 338, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:338
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work338.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work338.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas, 2006. "Corporate Finance and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 829-870.
    2. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2016. "Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 30-65.
    3. Aliaga-Díaz, Roger & Olivero, María Pía, 2012. "Do Bank Capital Requirements Amplify Business Cycles? Bridging The Gap Between Theory And Empirics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 358-395, June.
    4. C. Goodhart & M. Peiris & D. Tsomocos & A. Vardoulakis, 2010. "On dividend restrictions and the collapse of the interbank market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 455-473, October.
    5. Olivier Jeanne & Anton Korinek, 2010. "Managing Credit Booms and Busts: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach," NBER Working Papers 16377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kollmann, Robert & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 407-426, April.
    7. Scott Roger & Jan Vlcek, 2011. "Macroeconomic Costs of Higher Bank Capital and Liquidity Requirements," IMF Working Papers 11/103, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Jaromir Benes & Michael Kumhof, 2011. "Risky Bank Lending and Optimal Capital Adequacy Regulation," IMF Working Papers 11/130, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2008. "The welfare cost of bank capital requirements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-320, March.
    10. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2011. "Overborrowing, Financial Crises and 'Macro-prudential' Policy," 2011 Meeting Papers 175, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Kevin Moran & Cesaire A. Meh & Ian Christensen, 2010. "Bank Leverage Regulation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 757, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Anat R. Admati & Peter M. DeMarzo & Martin F. Hellwig & Paul Pfleiderer, 2010. "Fallacies, Irrelevant Facts, and Myths in the Discussion of Capital Regulation: Why Bank Equity is Not Expensive," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2010_42, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    13. Denis Beau & Christophe Cahn & Laurent Clerc & Benoît Mojon, 2014. "Macro-Prudential Policy and the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Sofía Bauducco & Lawrence Christiano & Claudio Raddatz (ed.), Macroeconomic and Financial Stability: challenges for Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 19, chapter 9, pages 273-314 Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Richard Brealey, 2006. "Basel II: The Route Ahead or Cul-de-Sac?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 18(4), pages 34-43.
    15. Allen Berger & Robert DeYoung & Mark Flannery & David Lee & Özde Öztekin, 2008. "How Do Large Banking Organizations Manage Their Capital Ratios?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 123-149, December.
    16. Elijah Brewer III & George Kaufman & Larry Wall, 2008. "Bank Capital Ratios Across Countries: Why Do They Vary?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 177-201, December.
    17. Viral V. Acharya & Hamid Mehran & Anjan V. Thakor, 2010. "Caught between Scylla and Charybdis? Regulating bank leverage when there is rent seeking and risk shifting," Working Paper 1024, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    18. Dellas, H. & Diba, B. & Loisel, O., 2010. "Financial Shocks and Optimal Policy," Working papers 277, Banque de France.
    19. Michael R King, 2010. "Mapping capital and liquidity requirements to bank lending spreads," BIS Working Papers 324, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester, 2013. "Capital regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 311-324.
    21. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    22. Jochen Schanz & David Aikman & Paul Collazos & Marc Farag & David Gregory & Sujit Kapadia, 2011. "The long-term economic impact of higher capital levels," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 73-81 Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Paolo Angelini & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta, 2011. "Monetary and macroprudential policies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 801, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Roger Aliaga‐Díaz & María Pía Olivero, 2011. "The Cyclicality Of Price‐Cost Margins In Banking: An Empirical Analysis Of Its Determinants," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 26-46, January.
    27. Paolo Angelini & Andrea Enria & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta & Mario Quagliariello, 2010. "Pro-cyclicality of capital regulation: is it a problem? How to fix it?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 74, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    28. Peter Boone & C Goodhart & Andrew Haldane & Simon Johnson & John Kay & Andrew Large & Richard Layard & Andrew Smithers & A Turner & S Wadhwani & Martin Wolf & Paul Woolley, 2010. "In brief: The future of finance," CentrePiece - The Magazine for Economic Performance 327, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basel III; countercyclical capital buffers; financial (in)stability; procyclicality; macroprudential;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.