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Modeling Your Stress Away

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Abstract

We investigate systematic changes in banks' projected credit losses between the 2014 and 2016 EBA stress tests, employing methodology from Philippon et al. (2017). We find that projected credit losses were smoothed across the tests through systematic model adjustments. Those banks whose losses would have increased the most from 2014 to 2016 due to changes in the supervisory scenarios-keeping the models constant and controlling for changes in the riskiness of underlying portfolios-saw the largest decrease in losses due to model changes. Model changes were more pronounced for banks that rely more on the Internal Ratings-Based approach, and they explain the cross-section of market responses to the release of the 2016 results. Stock prices and CDS spreads increased more for banks with larger reductions in projected credit losses due to model changes, as investors apparently did not interpret lower loan losses as reflecting mainly a decrease in credit risk but, instead, as a sign of lower capital requirements going forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Friederike Niepmann & Viktors Stebunovs, 2018. "Modeling Your Stress Away," International Finance Discussion Papers 1232, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1232
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1232
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    1. Acharya, Viral & Engle, Robert & Pierret, Diane, 2014. "Testing macroprudential stress tests: The risk of regulatory risk weights," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 36-53.
    2. Cortés, Kristle R. & Demyanyk, Yuliya & Li, Lei & Loutskina, Elena & Strahan, Philip E., 2020. "Stress tests and small business lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 260-279.
    3. Mariathasan, Mike & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2014. "The manipulation of basel risk-weights," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 300-321.
    4. Francesco Vallascas & Jens Hagendorff, 2013. "The Risk Sensitivity of Capital Requirements: Evidence from an International Sample of Large Banks," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(6), pages 1947-1988.
    5. Matthew Plosser & João A. C. Santos, 2014. "Banks' incentives and the quality of internal risk models," Staff Reports 704, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Thomas Philippon & Pierre Pessarossi & Boubacar Camara, 2017. "Backtesting European Stress Tests," NBER Working Papers 23083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    8. Calem, Paul & Correa, Ricardo & Lee, Seung Jung, 2020. "Prudential policies and their impact on credit in the United States," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    9. Steffen, Sascha, 2014. "Robustness, validity, and significance of the ECB's asset quality review and stress test exercise," SAFE White Paper Series 23, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kok, Christoffer & Müller, Carola & Ongena, Steven & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2021. "The disciplining effect of supervisory scrutiny in the EU-wide stress test," CEPR Discussion Papers 16157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Kleemann, Michael & Reichenbachas, Tomas & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz, 2020. "Banking euro area stress test model," Working Paper Series 2469, European Central Bank.
    3. Haselmann, Rainer & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2018. "How demanding and consistent is the 2018 stress test design in comparison to previous exercises? Banking union scrutiny," SAFE White Paper Series 54, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Ramadiah, Amanah & Fricke, Daniel & Caccioli, Fabio, 2022. "Backtesting macroprudential stress tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Shapiro, Joel & Zeng, Jing, 2019. "Stress Testing and Bank Lending," CEPR Discussion Papers 13907, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Henry Penikas & Anastasia Skarednova & Mikhail Surkov, 2021. "How Do Investors Prefer Banks to Transit to Basel Internal Models: Mandatorily or Voluntarily?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps74, Bank of Russia.
    7. Hernández, Javier & Población García, Francisco Javier & Suárez, Nuria & Tarancón, Javier, 2022. "A study on the EBA stress test results: influence of bank, portfolio, and country-level characteristics," Working Paper Series 2648, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stress tests; Financial institutions; Regulation; Credit risk models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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