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Banks’ Incentives and Inconsistent Risk Models

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  • Matthew C Plosser
  • João A C Santos

Abstract

This paper investigates banks’ incentive to bias the risk estimates they report to regulators. Within loan syndicates, we find that banks with less capital report lower risk estimates. Consistent with an effort to mitigate capital requirements, the sensitivity to capital is robust to bank fixed effects and greater for large, risky, and opaque credits. Also, low-capital banks’ risk estimates have less explanatory power than those of high-capital banks with regard to loan prices, indicating that their estimates incorporate less information. Our results suggest banks underreport risk in response to capital constraints and highlight the perils of regulation premised on self-reporting. Received September 21, 2016; editorial decision September 18, 2017 by Editor Philip Strahan. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web Site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew C Plosser & João A C Santos, 2018. "Banks’ Incentives and Inconsistent Risk Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(6), pages 2080-2112.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:31:y:2018:i:6:p:2080-2112.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhy028
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    Cited by:

    1. Irani, Rustom & Iyer, Rajkamal & Meisenzahl, Ralf & Peydró, José-Luis, 2021. "The rise of shadow banking: Evidence from capital regulation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 34(5), pages 2181-2235.
    2. Lim, Ivan & Hagendorff, Jens & Armitage, Seth, 2019. "Is the fox guarding the henhouse? Bankers in the Federal Reserve, bank leverage and risk-shifting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 478-504.
    3. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2023. "Institutional investors, the dollar, and U.S. credit conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 198-220.
    4. João Granja & Christian Leuz & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2022. "Going the Extra Mile: Distant Lending and Credit Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1259-1324, April.
    5. Böhnke, Victoria & Ongena, Steven & Paraschiv, Florentina & Reite, Endre J., 2023. "Back to the roots of internal credit risk models: Does risk explain why banks' risk-weighted asset levels converge over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    6. Behn, Markus & Couaillier, Cyril, 2023. "Same same but different: credit risk provisioning under IFRS 9," Working Paper Series 2841, European Central Bank.
    7. Benetton, Matteo & Eckley, Peter & Garbarino, Nicola & Kirwin, Liam & Latsi, Georgia, 2021. "Capital requirements and mortgage pricing: Evidence from Basel II," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    8. Leitner, Yaron & Yilmaz, Bilge, 2019. "Regulating a model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 251-268.
    9. Henri Fraisse & Mathias Lé & David Thesmar, 2020. "The Real Effects of Bank Capital Requirements," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 5-23, January.
    10. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2018. "Global Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 13237, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Gustafson, Matthew T. & Ivanov, Ivan T. & Meisenzahl, Ralf R., 2021. "Bank monitoring: Evidence from syndicated loans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 452-477.
    12. Niepmann, Friederike & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2024. "Modeling your stress away," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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