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The limits of model-based regulation

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  • Behn, Markus
  • Haselmann, Rainer
  • Vig, Vikrant

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate how the introduction of sophisticated, model-based capital regulation affected the measurement of credit risk by financial institutions. Model-based regulation was meant to enhance the stability of the financial sector by making capital charges more sensitive to risk. Exploiting the introduction of the model-based approach in Germany and the richness of our loan-level data set, we show that (1) internal risk estimates employed for regulatory purposes systematically underpredict actual default rates by 0.5 to 1 percentage points; (2) both default rates and loss rates are higher for loans that were originated under the model-based approach, while corresponding risk-weights are significantly lower; and (3) interest rates are higher for loans originated under the model-based approach, suggesting that banks were aware of the higher risk associated with these loans and priced them accordingly. Counter to the stated objective of the reform, financial institutions have lower capital charges and at the same time experience higher loan losses. Further, we document that large banks benefited from the reform as they experienced a reduction in capital charges and consequently expanded their lending at the expense of smaller banks that did not introduce the model-based approach. Overall, our results highlight that if the challenges that accompanies complex regulation are too high simpler rules may increase the efficacy of financial regulation. JEL Classification: G01, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Behn, Markus & Haselmann, Rainer & Vig, Vikrant, 2016. "The limits of model-based regulation," Working Paper Series 1928, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161928
    Note: 2203070
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    Cited by:

    1. Malovaná, Simona & Kolcunová, Dominika & Brož, Václav, 2019. "Does monetary policy influence banks’ risk weights under the internal ratings-based approach?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 1-1.
    2. Abbassi, Puriya & Schmidt, Michael, 2018. "A comprehensive view on risk reporting: Evidence from supervisory data," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 74-85.
    3. João Granja & Christian Leuz & Raghuram Rajan, 2018. "Going the Extra Mile: Distant Lending and Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 25196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Roberto Felici & Federico Maria Signoretti, 2016. "Euro area significant banks: main differences and recent performance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 306, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Kreiser, Swetlana & Kick, Thomas & Merkl, Christian & Ruprecht, Benedikt, 2016. "Banking and the Macroeconomy: A Micro-Macro Linkage," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145921, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Barucci, Emilio & Milani, Carlo, 2018. "Do European banks manipulate risk weights?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 47-57.
    7. Dirk Schoenmaker & Nicolas Véron, . "European banking supervision: the first eighteen months," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 14868.
    8. Maier, Ulf, 2017. "Regulatory Competition In Capital Standards with Selection Effects among Banks," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 7, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    9. Bongaerts, Dion, 2014. "Alternatives for issuer-paid credit rating agencies," Working Paper Series 1703, European Central Bank.
    10. Leitner, Yaron & Yilmaz, Bilge, 2019. "Regulating a model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 251-268.
    11. Gehrig, Thomas Paul & Iannino, Maria Chiara, 2016. "Did the Basel Process of Capital Regulation Enhance the Resiliency of European Banks?," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145743, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Cucinelli, Doriana & Battista, Maria Luisa Di & Marchese, Malvina & Nieri, Laura, 2018. "Credit risk in European banks: The bright side of the internal ratings based approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 213-229.
    13. Yaron Leitner & Bilge Yilmaz, 2016. "Regulating A Model," Working Papers 16-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 01 May 2018.
    14. Aikman, David & Haldane, Andrew & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Kapadia, Sujit, 2018. "Rethinking financial stability," Bank of England working papers 712, Bank of England.
    15. Marco Pagano, 2014. "Lessons from the European Financial Crisis," CSEF Working Papers 370, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    16. Haufler, Andreas & Maier, Ulf, 2019. "Regulatory competition in capital standards: a ‘race to the top’ result," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 180-194.
    17. Martin Hellwig, 2016. "“Total Assets” versus “Risk Weighted Assets”: Does it matter for MREL requirements?," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2016_12, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    18. Mérő, Katalin, 2018. "A kockázatalapú bankszabályozás előretörése és visszaszorulása - az ösztönzési struktúrák szerepe
      [The emergence and decline of risk-based bank regulation the role of incentive structures]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 981-1005.
    19. Pérez Montes, Carlos & Trucharte Artigas, Carlos & Cristófoli, María Elizabeth & Lavín San Segundo, Nadia, 2018. "The impact of the IRB approach on the risk weights of European banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 147-166.
    20. Ingo Fender & Ulf Lewrick, 2015. "Calibrating the leverage ratio," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    21. Beltratti, Andrea & Paladino, Giovanna, 2016. "Basel II and regulatory arbitrage. Evidence from financial crises," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 180-196.
    22. Hans Degryse & Sanja Jakovljević & Steven Ongena, 2015. "A Review of Empirical Research on the Design and Impact of Regulation in the Banking Sector," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 423-443, December.
    23. Sen, Ishita & Humphry, David, 2018. "Capital regulation and product market outcomes," Bank of England working papers 715, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basel regulation; capital regulation; complexity of regulation; internal ratings;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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