IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bof/bofrdp/2018_016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did the Basel process of capital regulation enhance the resiliency of European Banks?

Author

Listed:
  • Gehrig, Thomas
  • Iannino, Maria Chiara

Abstract

This paper analyses the evolution of the safety and soundness of the European banking sector during the various stages of the Basel process of capital regulation. In the first part we document the evolution of various measures of systemic risk as the Basel process unfolds. Most strikingly, we find that the exposure to systemic risk as measured by SRISK has been steeply rising for the highest quintile, moderately rising for the second quintile and remaining roughly stationary for the remaining three quintiles of listed European banks. This observation suggests that the Basel process has succeeded in containing systemic risk for the majority of European banks but not for the largest and most risky institutions. In the second part we analyze the drivers of systemic risk. We find compelling evidence that the increase in exposure to systemic risk (SRISK) is intimately tied to the implementation of internal models for determining credit risk as well as market risk. Based on this evidence, the sub-prime crisis found especially the largest and more systemic banks ill-prepared and lacking resiliency. This condition has even aggravated during the European sovereign crisis. Banking Union has not restored aggregate resiliency to pre-crises levels. Finally, low interest rates considerably a ect the contribution to systemic risk for the safer banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehrig, Thomas & Iannino, Maria Chiara, 2018. "Did the Basel process of capital regulation enhance the resiliency of European Banks?," Research Discussion Papers 16/2018, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2018_016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/123456789/15906/1/BoF_DP_1816.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hakenes, Hendrik & Schnabel, Isabel, 2011. "Bank size and risk-taking under Basel II," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1436-1449, June.
    2. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache & Ouarda Merrouche, 2013. "Bank Capital: Lessons from the Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1147-1164, September.
    3. Matthew Baron & Wei Xiong, 2017. "Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(2), pages 713-764.
    4. Thomas Gehrig, 1995. "Capital Adequacy Rules: Implications for Banks' Risk-Taking," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 131(IV), pages 747-764, December.
    5. Martin Hellwig, 2009. "Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector: An Analysis of the Subprime-Mortgage Financial Crisis," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 129-207, June.
    6. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    7. Thomas P. Gehrig, 2013. "Capital, confiance et compétitivité dans le secteur bancaire," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(4), pages 175-194.
    8. Sylvain Benoît & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "A Theoretical and Empirical Comparison of Systemic Risk Measures," Working Papers halshs-00746272, HAL.
    9. Acharya, Viral & Engle, Robert & Pierret, Diane, 2014. "Testing macroprudential stress tests: The risk of regulatory risk weights," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 36-53.
    10. Venky Venkateswaran & Laura Veldkamp & Julian Kozlowski, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation," 2015 Meeting Papers 800, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Christian Brownlees & Robert F. Engle, 2017. "SRISK: A Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 48-79.
    12. Mariathasan, Mike & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2014. "The manipulation of basel risk-weights," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 300-321.
    13. Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2016. "Too-Systemic-to-Fail: What Option Markets Imply about Sector-Wide Government Guarantees," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1278-1319, June.
    14. Roland Füss & Thomas Gehrig & Philipp B. Rindler, 2016. "Changing Risk Perception and the Time-Varying Price of Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1549-1585.
    15. Thomas Gehrig & Maria Chiara Iannino, 2018. "Capital regulation and systemic risk in the insurance sector," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 237-263, May.
    16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    17. Beltratti, Andrea & Stulz, René M., 2012. "The credit crisis around the globe: Why did some banks perform better?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 1-17.
    18. Martin Hellwig & Markus Straub, 1996. "Capital Requirements for Market Risks Based on Inhouse Models - Aspects of Quality Assessment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 132(IV), pages 755-776, December.
    19. Eberlein, Ernst & Keller, Ulrich & Prause, Karsten, 1998. "New Insights into Smile, Mispricing, and Value at Risk: The Hyperbolic Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 371-405, July.
    20. Berg, Tobias & Koziol, Philipp, 2017. "An analysis of the consistency of banks’ internal ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 27-41.
    21. Parente Paulo M.D.C. & Santos Silva João M.C., 2016. "Quantile Regression with Clustered Data," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, January.
    22. Michael R King, 2009. "The cost of equity for global banks: a CAPM perspective from 1990 to 2009," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    23. Martin Hellwig, 1995. "Systemic Aspects of Risk Management in Banking and Finance," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 131(IV), pages 723-737, December.
    24. Oaxaca, Ronald, 1973. "Male-Female Wage Differentials in Urban Labor Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 693-709, October.
    25. Calomiris, Charles W. & Nissim, Doron, 2014. "Crisis-related shifts in the market valuation of banking activities," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 400-435.
    26. Thomas Gehrig, 1996. "Market Structure, Monitoring and Capital Adequacy Regulation," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 132(IV), pages 685-702, December.
    27. Bahaj, Saleem & Malherbe, Frédéric, 2016. "A positive analysis of bank behaviour under capital requirements," CEPR Discussion Papers 11607, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    29. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    30. Salleo, Carmelo & Homar, Timotej & Kick, Heinrich, 2016. "Making sense of the EU wide stress test: a comparison with the SRISK approach," Working Paper Series 1920, European Central Bank.
    31. Boyd, John H. & Runkle, David E., 1993. "Size and performance of banking firms : Testing the predictions of theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 47-67, February.
    32. Laeven, Luc & Ratnovski, Lev & Tong, Hui, 2016. "Bank size, capital, and systemic risk: Some international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(S1), pages 25-34.
    33. Barnes, Michelle L. & Lopez, Jose A., 2006. "Alternative measures of the Federal Reserve Banks' cost of equity capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1687-1711, June.
    34. Priyank Gandhi & Hanno Lustig, 2015. "Size Anomalies in U.S. Bank Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 733-768, April.
    35. Fiordelisi, Franco & Marqués-Ibañez, David, 2013. "Is bank default risk systematic?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2000-2010.
    36. Matthew Plosser & Joao A. C. Santos, 2014. "Banks' incentives and the quality of internal risk models," Staff Reports 704, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    37. Gehrig, Thomas, 2013. "Capital, Trust and Competitiveness in the Banking Sector," CEPR Discussion Papers 9348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    38. Alan S. Blinder, 1973. "Wage Discrimination: Reduced Form and Structural Estimates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 8(4), pages 436-455.
    39. Con Keating & Hyun Song Shin & Charles Goodhart & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "An Academic Response to Basel II," FMG Special Papers sp130, Financial Markets Group.
    40. Behn, Markus Wilhelm & Haselmann, Rainer & Vig, Vikrant, 2014. "The limits of model-based regulation," IMFS Working Paper Series 82, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    41. Peter A. Wuffli, 1995. "Comment on the paper by Professor Hellwig "Systemic Aspects of Risk Management in Banking and Finance"," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 131(IV), pages 739-740, December.
    42. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    43. Linda Allen & Turan G. Bali & Yi Tang, 2012. "Does Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector Predict Future Economic Downturns?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(10), pages 3000-3036.
    44. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    45. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    46. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2015. "Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Bank Regulation, Capital Structure, and the Low-Risk Anomaly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 315-320, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christopher F. Baum & Caterina Forti Grazzini & Dorothea Schäfer, 2020. "Institutional Diversity in Domestic Banking Sectors and Bank Stability: A Cross-Country Study," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1869, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2020. "Are bank capital requirements optimally set? Evidence from researchers’ views," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Marisa Basten & Antonio Sánchez Serrano, 2019. "European banks after the global financial crisis: a new landscape," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 51-73, March.
    4. Cassola, Nuno & Kok, Christoffer & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2019. "The ECB after the crisis: existing synergies among monetary policy, macroprudential policies and banking supervision," Occasional Paper Series 237, European Central Bank.
    5. Falter, Alexander, 2019. "Macro to the rescue? An analysis of macroprudential instruments to regulate housing credit," Discussion Papers 25/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Muteba Mwamba, John Weirstrass & Mhlophe, Bongani, 2019. "Modelling Asset Correlations of Revolving Loan Defaults in South Africa," MPRA Paper 97340, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huang, Qiubin & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2020. "Does bank capitalization matter for bank stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Christian Brownlees & Robert F. Engle, 2017. "SRISK: A Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 48-79.
    3. Bostandzic, Denefa & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2018. "Why do some banks contribute more to global systemic risk?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 17-40.
    4. Cipollini, Fabrizio & Giannozzi, Alessandro & Menchetti, Fiammetta & Roggi, Oliviero, 2020. "The beauty contest between systemic and systematic risk measures: Assessing the empirical performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 316-332.
    5. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    6. Abendschein, Michael & Grundke, Peter, 2018. "On the ranking consistency of global systemic risk measures: empirical evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181623, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    8. Abedifar, Pejman & Giudici, Paolo & Hashem, Shatha Qamhieh, 2017. "Heterogeneous market structure and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 96-119.
    9. Seo Joon Choi & Kanghyun Kim & Sunyoung Park, 2020. "Is systemic risk systematic? Evidence from the U.S. stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 642-663, October.
    10. Tatiana Gaelle Yongoua Tchikanda, 2017. "Systemic risk and individual risk: A trade-off?," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2020. "Can systemic risk measures predict economic shocks? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Nucera, Federico & Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2016. "The information in systemic risk rankings," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 461-475.
    13. Xisong Jin, 2018. "How much does book value data tell us about systemic risk and its interactions with the macroeconomy? A Luxembourg empirical evaluation," BCL working papers 118, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    14. Dissem, Sonia & Lobez, Frederic, 2020. "Correlation between the 2014 EU-wide stress tests and the market-based measures of systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Cai, Jian & Eidam, Frederik & Saunders, Anthony & Steffen, Sascha, 2018. "Syndication, interconnectedness, and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 105-120.
    16. Hwang, Inchang & Xu, Simon & In, Francis & Kim, Tong Suk, 2017. "Systemic risk and cross-sectional hedge fund returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 109-130.
    17. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 2014. "Bank capital and systemic stability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6948, The World Bank.
    18. Marisa Basten & Antonio Sánchez Serrano, 2019. "European banks after the global financial crisis: a new landscape," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 51-73, March.
    19. Bats, Joost V. & Houben, Aerdt C.F.J., 2020. "Bank-based versus market-based financing: Implications for systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    20. Kreis, Yvonne & Leisen, Dietmar P.J., 2018. "Systemic risk in a structural model of bank default linkages," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 221-236.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2018_016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Minna Nyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.