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The disciplining effect of supervisory scrutiny in the EU-wide stress test

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Listed:
  • Ongena, Steven
  • Kok, Christoffer
  • Müller, Carola
  • Pancaro, Cosimo

Abstract

Using a difference-in-differences approach and relying on confidential supervisory data and an unique proprietary data set available at the European Central Bank related to the 2016 EU-wide stress test, this paper presents novel empirical evidence that supervisory scrutiny associated to stress testing has a disciplining effect on bank risk. We find that banks that participated in the 2016 EU-wide stress test subsequently reduced their credit risk relative to banks that were not part of this exercise. Relying on new metrics for supervisory scrutiny that measure the quantity, potential impact, and duration of interactions between banks and supervisors during the stress test, we find that the disciplining effect is stronger for banks subject to more intrusive supervisory scrutiny during the exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Ongena, Steven & Kok, Christoffer & Müller, Carola & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2021. "The disciplining effect of supervisory scrutiny in the EU-wide stress test," CEPR Discussion Papers 16157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16157
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    2. Hobelsberger, Karin & Kok, Christoffer & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2022. "A tale of three crises: synergies between ECB tasks," Occasional Paper Series 305, European Central Bank.
    3. Andrea Bellucci & Gianluca Gucciardi, 2024. "A Turning Point For Banking: Unraveling The Changing Landscape Of Banking Activity In Europe Since The Covid-19 Pandemic," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions (JFMMI), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(02), pages 1-38, December.
    4. Hans Degryse & Cédric Huylebroek & Bernardus F Nazar Van Doornik, 2025. "The disciplining effect of bank supervision: evidence from SupTech," BIS Working Papers 1256, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Borsuk, Marcin & Kowalewski, Oskar & Qi, Jianping, 2023. "The dark side of bank taxes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Durrani, Agha & Ongena, Steven & Ponte Marques, Aurea, 2024. "Decoding market reactions: The certification role of EU-wide stress tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Durrani, Agha & Ongena, Steven & Ponte Marques, Aurea, 2022. "The certification role of the EU-wide stress testing exercises in the stock market. What can we learn from the stress tests (2014-2021)?," Working Paper Series 2711, European Central Bank.
    8. Budnik, Katarzyna & Ponte Marques, Aurea & Giglio, Carla & Grassi, Alberto & Durrani, Agha & Figueres, Juan Manuel & Konietschke, Paul & Le Grand, Catherine & Metzler, Julian & Población García, Franc, 2024. "Advancements in stress-testing methodologies for financial stability applications," Occasional Paper Series 348, European Central Bank.
    9. Fiordelisi, Franco & Fusi, Giulia & Maddaloni, Angela & Marqués Ibáñez, David, 2022. "Pandemic lending: Micro and macro effects of model-based regulation," SAFE Working Paper Series 374, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    10. Gschossmann, Isabella & Kok, Christoffer & De Cicco, Valentina, 2025. "Bank lending implications of climate stress tests," Working Paper Series 3088, European Central Bank.
    11. Niepmann, Friederike & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2024. "Modeling your stress away," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    12. Paul Konietschke & Steven Ongena & Aurea Ponte Marques, 2022. "Stress tests and capital requirement disclosures: do they impact banks' lending and risk-taking decisions?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-60, Swiss Finance Institute.
    13. António Afonso & Francisco Gomes Pereira, 2025. "Unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area: Impacts on loans, employment, and investment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 190-220, January.
    14. Abad, Pilar & Robles, M.-Dolores & Alonso Orts, Carlos, 2023. "Stress testing programs and credit risk opacity of banks: USA vs Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    15. Maria Alessia Aiello, 2024. "Climate supervisory shocks and bank lending: empirical evidence from microdata," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1465, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Liang, Lantian & Zhang, Harold H. & Zhao, Feng & Zhao, Xiaofei, 2025. "Disclosure mandate, trust, and asset securitization," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Ahmed, Kasim & Calice, Giovanni, 2024. "The effects of the EBA's stress testing framework on banks' lending," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. Cuzzola, Angelo & Barbieri, Claudio & Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2025. "Gaming the test? Window-dressing and portfolio similarity around the EU-wide stress tests," Working Paper Series 3094, European Central Bank.
    19. Baesens, Bart & Smedts, Kristien, 2025. "Boosting credit risk models," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(4).
    20. Lubberink, Martien, 2022. "Max headroom: Discretionary capital buffers and bank risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    21. Hernández, Javier & Población García, Francisco Javier & Suárez, Nuria & Tarancón, Javier, 2022. "A study on the EBA stress test results: influence of bank, portfolio, and country-level characteristics," Working Paper Series 2648, European Central Bank.

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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