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Reevaluation of the capital charge in insurance after a large shock: empirical and theoretical views

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  • F. Borel-Mathurin
  • S. Loisel
  • J. Segers

Abstract

Motivated by the recent introduction of regulatory stress tests in the Solvency II framework, we study the impact of the re-estimation of the tail risk and of loss absorbing capacities on post-stress solvency ratios. Our contribution is threefold. First, we build the first stylized model for re-estimated solvency ratio in insurance. Second, we solve a new theoretical problem in statistical theory: what is the asymptotic impact of a record on the re-estimation of tail quantiles and tail probabilities for classical extreme value estimators? Third, we quantify the impact of the re-estimation of tail quantiles and of loss absorbing capacities on real-world solvency ratios thanks to regulatory data from EIOPA. Our analysis sheds a first light on the role of the loss absorbing capacity and its paramount importance in the Solvency II capital charge computations. We conclude with a number of policy recommendations for insurance regulators.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Borel-Mathurin & S. Loisel & J. Segers, 2017. "Reevaluation of the capital charge in insurance after a large shock: empirical and theoretical views," Débats économiques et financiers 32, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:decfin:32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chaffai, Mohamed & Dietsch, Michel, 2015. "Modelling and measuring business risk and the resiliency of retail banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 173-182.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aurélien Violon & Dominique Durant & Oana Toader, 2017. "The Impact of the Identification of GSIBs on their Business Model," Débats économiques et financiers 33, Banque de France.
    2. F. Borel-Mathurin & S. Loisel & J. Segers, 2017. "Reevaluation of the capital charge in insurance after a large shock: empirical and theoretical views," Débats économiques et financiers 32, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Insurance; Extreme Value Theory; Financial Regulation; Solvency II; Solvency Capital Requirement; Loss Absorbing Capacities; Stress Tests; Enterprise Risk Management.;

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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