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Stress testing banks

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  • Schuermann, Til

Abstract

How much capital and liquidity does a bank need to support its risk taking activities? During the recent (and still ongoing) financial crisis, answers to this question using standard approaches, e.g., regulatory capital ratios, were no longer credible, and thus broad-based supervisory stress testing became the new tool. Bank balance sheets are notoriously opaque and susceptible to asset substitution (easy swapping of high risk for low risk assets), so stress tests, tailored to the situation at hand, can provide clarity by openly disclosing details of the results and approaches taken, allowing trust to be regained. With that trust re-established, the cost-benefit of stress testing disclosures may tip away from bank-specific towards more aggregated information. This paper lays out a framework for the stress testing of banks: why it is useful and why it has become such a popular tool for the regulatory community in the course of the recent financial crisis; how stress testing is done (design and execution); and finally, with stress testing results in hand, how one should handle their disclosure, and whether it should be different in crisis vs. “normal” times.

Suggested Citation

  • Schuermann, Til, 2014. "Stress testing banks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 717-728.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:3:p:717-728
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.10.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antonella Foglia, 2008. "Stress testing credit risk: a survey of authorities' approaches," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 37, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Stiroh, Kevin J, 2004. "Diversification in Banking: Is Noninterest Income the Answer?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 853-882, October.
    3. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    4. Acharya, Viral V. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 787-821, September.
    5. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
    6. Ingo Fender & Michael S. Gibson & Patricia C. Mosser, 2001. "An international survey of stress tests," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 7(Nov).
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Ensuring Stress Tests Remain Effective
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-01-22 13:00:51

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierluigi Bologna & Anatoli Segura, 2016. "Integrating stress tests within the Basel III capital framework: a macroprudentially coherent approach," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 360, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. repec:eee:jfinin:v:34:y:2018:i:c:p:58-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Vincent Touzé, 2014. "Comment lutter contre la fragmentation du système bancaire de la zone euro ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 171-219.
    4. Koziol, Philipp & Schell, Carmen & Eckhardt, Meik, 2015. "Credit risk stress testing and copulas: Is the Gaussian copula better than its reputation?," Discussion Papers 46/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele & Pasqualini, Andrea, 2016. "An entropy-based early warning indicator for systemic risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 42-59.
    6. Xavier Timbeau, 2015. "A diverging Europe on the edge: The independent Annual Growth Survey 2015," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4s2r6d8kua9, Sciences Po.
    7. repec:eee:finsta:v:32:y:2017:i:c:p:86-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Zoran Wittine & Ivana Vuk, 2016. "Analysis of Stability and Exposure of Croatian Bank System to Non-Credit Risks," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 331-342, December.
    9. repec:eee:quaeco:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:237-253 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Michael Jacobs, 2016. "Stress Testing and a Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Scenario Generation," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-7.
    11. Pavel Kapinos & Oscar A. Mitnik, 2016. "A Top-down Approach to Stress-testing Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 229-264, June.
    12. Fausto Pacicco & Luigi Vena & Andrea Venegoni, 2017. "Full disclosure and financial stability: how does the market digest the transparency shock?," LIUC Papers in Economics 305, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    13. Mora, Nada, 2015. "Creditor recovery: The macroeconomic dependence of industry equilibrium," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 172-186.
    14. Berlin, Mitchell, 2015. "Disclosure of stress test results," Working Papers 15-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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    Keywords

    Capital requirements; Leverage; Systemic risk;

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