The Empirical Relation between Credit Quality, Recovery and Correlation
Credit risk is an important issue in many finance areas, such as the determination of cost of capital, the valuation of corporate bonds and pricing of credit derivatives. Credit risk has also been a cause and consequence of the current financial crisis. Thus, methods for measuring credit risk, default probabilities, and recoveries have caught more and more attention in the financial literature. The majority of industry credit portfolio risk models, as well as recent scientific results, are based on isolated modules for default probabilities and recoveries in the event of default. This paper shows that these common methods lead to various econometric drawbacks when the parameters are interpreted and aggregated for risk capital allocation and pricing purposes. This paper provides a top down approach in which individual credit risk parameters are derived analytically from a single model. This model allows for a i) dynamic, ii) consistent, and iii) unbiased modeling of credit portfolio risks. An empirical analysis provides evidence for the inferred relationship between credit quality, recovery and correlation.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Koenigsworther Platz 1, D-30167 Hannover|
Phone: (0511) 762-5350
Fax: (0511) 762-5665
Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-hannover.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Merton, Robert C, 1974.
"On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005.
"Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates,"
CARF-F-047, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
- Darrell Duffie & Leandro Siata & Ke Wang, 2006. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 11962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-373, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Gordy, Michael B., 2003.
"A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules,"
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
- Michael B. Gordy, 2002. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joel, 2004. "Should SME exposures be treated as retail or corporate exposures? A comparative analysis of default probabilities and asset correlations in French and German SMEs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 773-788, April.
- Mark Carey, 1998. "Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1363-1387, 08.
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
- Qi, Min & Yang, Xiaolong, 2009. "Loss given default of high loan-to-value residential mortgages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 788-799, May.
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
- Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
- Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
- Dirk Tasche, 2004. "The single risk factor approach to capital charges in case of correlated loss given default rates," Papers cond-mat/0402390, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2004.
- Leland, Hayne E, 1994.
" Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-52, September.
- Hayne E. Leland., 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-233, University of California at Berkeley.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
- Acharya, Viral V. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 787-821, September.
- McNeil, Alexander J. & Wendin, Jonathan P., 2007. "Bayesian inference for generalized linear mixed models of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 131-149, March.
- Jorion, Philippe & Liu, Zhu & Shi, Charles, 2005. "Informational effects of regulation FD: evidence from rating agencies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 309-330, May.
- Lynnette D. Purda, 2007. "Stock Market Reaction To Anticipated Versus Surprise Rating Changes," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 301-320.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
- Grunert, Jens & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Recovery rates of commercial lending: Empirical evidence for German companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 505-513, March.
- Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign "CDS" Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Heidrich, Christian)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.