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A simple nonparametric approach to pricing credit default swaps

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  • Forte, Santiago

Abstract

This study introduces a nonparametric approach to pricing credit default swaps (CDSs) and other single-name credit-risky securities. This method is notable for its simplicity, estimation speed, and flexibility. That is, it relies exclusively on closed-form solutions, which provide instantaneous results, and allows the user to reproduce any term structure of CDS spreads. I empirically assess its pricing performance by comparing it with an otherwise equivalent semiparametric (piecewise constant default probability) model that requires a series of root-search algorithms and represents the current market convention for marking-to-market CDS contracts. This analysis demonstrates that the new method also implies a reduction in mean percentage absolute pricing errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Forte, Santiago, 2025. "A simple nonparametric approach to pricing credit default swaps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:180:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925001642
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105198
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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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