IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v180y2025ics0165188925001642.html

A simple nonparametric approach to pricing credit default swaps

Author

Listed:
  • Forte, Santiago

Abstract

This study introduces a nonparametric approach to pricing credit default swaps (CDSs) and other single-name credit-risky securities. This method is notable for its simplicity, estimation speed, and flexibility. That is, it relies exclusively on closed-form solutions, which provide instantaneous results, and allows the user to reproduce any term structure of CDS spreads. I empirically assess its pricing performance by comparing it with an otherwise equivalent semiparametric (piecewise constant default probability) model that requires a series of root-search algorithms and represents the current market convention for marking-to-market CDS contracts. This analysis demonstrates that the new method also implies a reduction in mean percentage absolute pricing errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Forte, Santiago, 2025. "A simple nonparametric approach to pricing credit default swaps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:180:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925001642
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188925001642
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105198?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antje Berndt & Iulian Obreja, 2010. "Decomposing European CDS Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 189-233.
    2. Du Du & Redouane Elkamhi & Jan Ericsson, 2019. "Time‐Varying Asset Volatility and the Credit Spread Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1841-1885, August.
    3. Augustin, Patrick, 2018. "The term structure of CDS spreads and sovereign credit risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 53-76.
    4. Darrell Duffie, 1999. "Credit Swap Valuation," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 73-87, January.
    5. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    6. Goldstein, Robert & Ju, Nengjiu & Leland, Hayne, 2001. "An EBIT-Based Model of Dynamic Capital Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(4), pages 483-512, October.
    7. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    8. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    9. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    10. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    11. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
    12. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
    13. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    14. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    15. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Jongsub Lee & Andy Naranjo & Stace Sirmans, 2021. "CDS Momentum: Slow-Moving Credit Ratings and Cross-Market Spillovers [Insider trading in credit derivatives]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 352-401.
    17. Gauri Bhat & Jeffrey L. Callen & Dan Segal, 2016. "Testing the Transparency Implications of Mandatory IFRS Adoption: The Spread/Maturity Relation of Credit Default Swaps," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(12), pages 3472-3493, December.
    18. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    19. Robert Jarrow & Haitao Li & Xiaoxia Ye & May Hu, 2019. "Exploring Mispricing in the Term Structure of CDS Spreads," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 161-198.
    20. Pérignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2010. "The level and quality of Value-at-Risk disclosure by commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 362-377, February.
    21. Chen, Ren-Raw & Cheng, Xiaolin & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Liu, Bo, 2008. "An Explicit, Multi-Factor Credit Default Swap Pricing Model with Correlated Factors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 123-160, March.
    22. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Ren-Raw Chen & Xiaolin Cheng & Liuren Wu, 2013. "Dynamic Interactions Between Interest-Rate and Credit Risk: Theory and Evidence on the Credit Default Swap Term Structure-super-," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 403-441.
    24. Hilscher, Jens & Jarrow, Robert A. & van Deventer, Donald R., 2025. "The Valuation of Corporate Coupon Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(5), pages 2259-2292, August.
    25. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    26. Hitesh Doshi & Jan Ericsson & Kris Jacobs & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2013. "Pricing Credit Default Swaps with Observable Covariates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 2049-2094.
    27. Geske, Robert & Johnson, H. E., 1984. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options: A Correction," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 231-232, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    2. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Murphy, Austin & Headley, Adrian, 2022. "An empirical evaluation of alternative fundamental models of credit spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    5. Duffie, Darrell, 2005. "Credit risk modeling with affine processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2751-2802, November.
    6. Stephen Zamore & Kwame Ohene Djan & Ilan Alon & Bersant Hobdari, 2018. "Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 811-835, March.
    7. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    8. Martin Dòzsa & Karel Janda, 2015. "Corporate asset pricing models and debt contracts," CAMA Working Papers 2015-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Viral V. Acharya & Jennifer N. Carpenter, 2002. "Corporate Bond Valuation and Hedging with Stochastic Interest Rates and Endogenous Bankruptcy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1355-1383.
    10. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224, December.
    11. Augusto Castillo, 2004. "Firm and Corporate Bond Valuation: A Simulation Dynamic Programming Approach," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 41(124), pages 345-360.
    12. Tsung-Kang Chen & Hsien-Hsing Liao & Chia-Wu Lu, 2011. "A flow-based corporate credit model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 517-532, May.
    13. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011, January-A.
    14. Han, Bing & Zhou, Yi, 2015. "Understanding the term structure of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 18-35.
    15. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
    16. Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Reyes Samaniego-Medina & Clara Cardone-Riportella, 2014. "Examining what best explains corporate credit risk: accounting-based versus market-based models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 253-276, April.
    17. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5, July-Dece.
    18. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    19. Kay Giesecke & Francis A. Longstaff & Stephen Schaefer & Ilya Strebulaev, 2010. "Corporate Bond Default Risk: A 150-Year Perspective," NBER Working Papers 15848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Yalin Gündüz & Marliese Uhrig-Homburg, 2014. "Does modeling framework matter? A comparative study of structural and reduced-form models," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 39-78, April.
    21. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:180:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925001642. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.