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Stress testing banks' profitability: the case of French banks

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  • Coffinet, J.
  • Lin, S.

Abstract

We build a stress testing framework to evaluate the sensitivity of banks’ profitability to plausible but severe adverse macroeconomic shocks. Specifically, we test the resilience of French banks using supervisory data over the period 1993-2009. First, we identify the macroeconomic and financial variables (GDP growth, interest rate maturity spread, stock market’s volatility) and bank-specific variables (size, capital ratio, ratio of non interest income to assets) that significantly affect French banks’ profitability. Second, our macroeconomic stress testing exercises based on a simulation of macroeconomic variables show that French banks’ profitability is resilient to major adverse macroeconomic scenarios. Specifically, our findings highlight that even severe recessions would leave the French banking system profitable.

Suggested Citation

  • Coffinet, J. & Lin, S., 2010. "Stress testing banks' profitability: the case of French banks," Working papers 306, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:306
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2000. "Financial structure and bank profitability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2430, The World Bank.
    2. Carbo Valverde, Santiago & Rodriguez Fernandez, Francisco, 2007. "The determinants of bank margins in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2043-2063, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Busch, Ramona & Koziol, Philipp & Mitrovic, Marc, 2015. "Many a little makes a mickle: Macro portfolio stress test for small and medium-sized German banks," Discussion Papers 23/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Vazquez, Francisco & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Souto, Marcos, 2012. "A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian banking sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 69-83.
    3. Albert, Stéphane, 2015. "US bank holding companies: Structure of activities and performance through the cycles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 253-269.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank profitability; dynamic panel estimation; stress test.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior

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