IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nea/journl/y2011i12p41-76.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Experience in Developing Early Warning System for Financial Crises and the Forecast of Russian Banking Sector Dynamic in 2012

Author

Listed:
  • Solntsev, O.

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), Moscow, Russia)

  • Mamonov, M.

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), Moscow, Russia)

  • Pestova, A.

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), Moscow, Russia)

  • Magomedova, Z.

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The article summarizes the key results of researches in the field of early warning systems for financial crises, conducted by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) since 2005. The proposed early warning system consists of three major blocks: the leading indicators of certain types of risks and the composite leading indicator of a systemic banking crisis; the medium-term scenario forecasting of key macroeconomic and financial indicators; stress testing of credit and liquidity risks of banks. On the basis of this early warning system we estimate the risks of financial crisis and some kinds of systemic risks in the different scenarios for the Russian economy in 2012. The analysis, in particular, revealed a sensitivity threshold of the domestic financial sector to changes in the world oil prices. Furthermore, it was found that the greatest destabilizing effect on the Russian financial sector may be caused by systemic credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Solntsev, O. & Mamonov, M. & Pestova, A. & Magomedova, Z., 2011. "Experience in Developing Early Warning System for Financial Crises and the Forecast of Russian Banking Sector Dynamic in 2012," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 12, pages 41-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2011:i:12:p:41-76
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econorus.org/repec/journl/2011-12-41-76r.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
    2. Lo Luca, Marco & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2011. "Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress : Assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Peng, Duan & Bajona, Claustre, 2008. "China's vulnerability to currency crisis: A KLR signals approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 138-151, June.
    4. Pesola, Jarmo, 2007. "Financial fragility, macroeconomic shocks and banks' loan losses : evidence from Europe," Research Discussion Papers 15/2007, Bank of Finland.
    5. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    6. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Shynar Shaikh, 2009. "Findings of the Signal Approach for Financial Monitoring in Kazakhstan," CESifo Working Paper Series 2774, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    8. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    9. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Banking Crises; Was Asia Different?," IMF Working Papers 98/91, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    12. M. Mamonov & A. Pestova & O. Solntsev., 2011. "Cash Cult in Russia: How to Debunk It and What Will Be the Consequences?," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
    13. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    14. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1997. "The determinants of banking crises : evidence from industrial and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1828, The World Bank.
    15. M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters,in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Marco Lo Duca & Tuomas Peltonen, 2011. "Macrofinancial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 82-88 Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
    19. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 68-83, April.
    20. Maechler, Andrea M. & McDill, Kathleen M., 2006. "Dynamic depositor discipline in US banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1871-1898, July.
    21. Chernykh, Lucy & Cole, Rebel A., 2011. "Does deposit insurance improve financial intermediation? Evidence from the Russian experiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 388-402, February.
    22. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring interactions between real activity and the financial stance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 308-341, April.
    23. Mark Swinburne & Stéphanie Marie Stolz & Marina Moretti, 2008. "Stress Testing at the IMF," IMF Working Papers 08/206, International Monetary Fund.
    24. De Graeve, Ferre & Karas, Alexei, 2010. "Identifying VARs through Heterogeneity: An Application to Bank Runs," Working Paper Series 244, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    25. O. Solntsev & A. Pestova & M. Mamonov, 2010. "Stress Test," Problems of Economic Transition, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(8), pages 68-94.
    26. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2004. "Market discipline and deposit insurance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 375-399, March.
    27. Raphael A Espinoza & Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 10/224, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    29. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
    30. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    31. Rajkamal Iyer & Manju Puri, 2008. "Understanding Bank Runs: The Importance of Depositor-Bank Relationships and Networks," NBER Working Papers 14280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
    33. Stephen Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    34. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. Rita Babihuga, 2007. "Macroeconomic and Financial Soundness Indicators; An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 07/115, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mamonov, Mikhail, 2012. "The impact of market power of Russian banks on their credit risk tolerance: A panel study," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 28(4), pages 85-112.
    2. repec:ris:apltrx:0339 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic financial crises; credit risks; liquidity risks; currency risks; early warning system; leading indicators; stress testing;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2011:i:12:p:41-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alexey Tcharykov). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nearuea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.