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Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland

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  • Virolainen, Kimmo

Abstract

In the discussion paper, we employ data on industry-specific corporate sector bankruptcies over the time period from 1986 to 2003 and estimate a macroeconomic credit risk model for the Finnish corporate sector.The sample period includes a severe recession with significantly higher-than-average default rates in the early 1990s.The results suggest a significant relationship between corporate sector default rates and key macroeconomic factors including GDP, interest rates and corporate indebtedness.The estimated model is employed to analyse corporate credit risks conditional on current macroeconomic conditions.Furthermore, the paper presents some examples of applying the model to macro stress testing, ie analysing the effects of various adverse macroeconomic events on the banks credit risks stemming from the corporate sector.The results of the stress tests suggest that Finnish corporate sector credit risks are fairly limited in the current macroeconomic environment. Key words: banking, credit risk, stress tests JEL classification numbers: C15, G21, G28, G33

Suggested Citation

  • Virolainen, Kimmo, 2003. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2004_018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harvir Kalirai & Martin Scheicher, 2002. "Macroeconomic Stress Testing: Preliminary Evidence for Austria," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 58-74.
    2. M. Tudela & G. Young, 2005. "A Merton-Model Approach To Assessing The Default Risk Of Uk Public Companies," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(06), pages 737-761.
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    4. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    6. Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland.
    7. Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2002:i:3:b:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Gertjan W. Vlieghe, 2001. "Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 146, Bank of England.
    10. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Giovanni Majnoni & Matthew T Jones & Winfrid Blaschke, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems; An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences," IMF Working Papers 01/88, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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