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Systemic Risk Measures

Listed author(s):
  • SOLANGE MARIA GUERRA
  • BENJAMIN MIRANDA TABAK
  • RODRIGO ANDRÉS DE SOUZA PENALOZA
  • RODRIGO CÉSAR DE CASTRO MIRAND

In this paper we present systemic risk measures based on contingent claims approach, banking sector multivariate density and cluster analysis. These indicators aim to capture credit risk stress and its potential to become systemic. The proposed measures capture not only individual bank vulnerability, but also the stress dependency structure between them. Furthermore, these measures can be quite useful for identifying systematically important banks. The empirical results show that these indicators capture with considerable fidelity the moments of increasing systemic risk in the Brazilian banking sector in recent years.

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 124.

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Date of creation: 2014
Handle: RePEc:anp:en2013:124
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  1. Vazquez, Francisco & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Souto, Marcos, 2012. "A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian banking sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 69-83.
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  4. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," BIS Working Papers 296, Bank for International Settlements.
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  6. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
  7. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
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  9. Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
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  11. Miguel Segoviano, 2006. "Consistent Information Multivariate Density Optimizing Methodology," FMG Discussion Papers dp557, Financial Markets Group.
  12. Puzanova, Natalia & Düllmann, Klaus, 2013. "Systemic risk contributions: A credit portfolio approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1243-1257.
  13. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2013. "Banking Systemic Vulnerabilities: A Tail-risk Dynamic CIMDO Approach," BCL working papers 82, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  14. De Jonghe, O.G., 2009. "Back to Basics in Banking? A Micro-Analysis of Banking System Stability," Discussion Paper 2009-45 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  15. Tolga Umut Kuzubas & Inci Omercikoglu & Burak Saltoglu, 2013. "Network Centrality Measures and Systemic Risk: An Application to the Turkish Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2013/12, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  16. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
  17. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Luduvice, André Victor D. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2011. "Modeling default probabilities: The case of Brazil," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 513-534, October.
  18. Marcos Souto & Benjamin M. Tabak & Francisco Vazquez, 2009. "Linking Financial and Macroeconomic Factors to Credit Risk Indicators of Brazilian Banks," Working Papers Series 189, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  19. Thiago Christiano Silva & Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2015. "Monitoring Vulnerability and Impact Diffusion in Financial Networks," Working Papers Series 392, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  20. Miguel A. Segoviano & Charles Goodhart, 2009. "Banking stability measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  21. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Fazio, Dimas M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2013. "Systemically important banks and financial stability: The case of Latin America," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3855-3866.
  22. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Takami, Marcelo & Rocha, Jadson M.C. & Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Souza, Sergio R.S., 2014. "Directed clustering coefficient as a measure of systemic risk in complex banking networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 211-216.
  23. Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2013. "Complex networks and banking systems supervision," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4429-4434.
  24. G. Bonanno & G. Caldarelli & F. Lillo & S. Micciché & N. Vandewalle & R. Mantegna, 2004. "Networks of equities in financial markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 38(2), pages 363-371, 03.
  25. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Miguel A. Segoviano, 2006. "Consistent information multivariate density optimizing methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  27. Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
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