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Forward looking banking stress in EMU countries

Author

Listed:
  • Manish K. Singh

    () (Department of Economic Theory, Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Marta Gómez-Puig

    () (Department of Economic Theory, Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

    () (Department of Quantitative Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

Abstract

Based on contingent claims analysis(CCA), this paper tries to estimate the systemic risk build-up in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries using a market based measure "distance-to-default"(DtD). It analyzes the individual and aggregated series for a comprehensive set of banks in each eurozone country over the period 2004-Q4 to 2013-Q2. Given the structural differences in financial sector and banking regulations at national level, the indices provide a useful indicator for monitoring country specific banking vulnerability and stress. We find that average DtD indicators are intuitive, forward-looking and timely risk indicators. The underlying trend, fluctuations and correlations among indices help us analyze the interdependence while cross-sectional differences in DtD prior to crisis suggest banking sector fragility in peripheral EMU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2014. "Forward looking banking stress in EMU countries," Working Papers 14-10, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  • Handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:1410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    contingent claim analysis; distance-to-default; systemic risk;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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