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Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction among listed companies using accounting, market and macroeconomic variables

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  • Hernandez Tinoco, Mario
  • Wilson, Nick

Abstract

Using a sample of 23,218company-year observations of listed companies during the period 1980–2011, the paper investigates empirically the utility of combining accounting, market-based and macro-economic data to explain corporate credit risk. The paper develops risk models for listed companies that predict financial distress and bankruptcy. The estimated models use a combination of accounting data, stock market information and proxies for changes in the macro-economic environment. The purpose is to produce models with predictive accuracy, practical value and macro dependent dynamics that have relevance for stress testing. The results show the utility of combining accounting, market and macro-economic data in financial distress prediction models for listed companies. The performance of the estimated models is benchmarked against models built using a neural network (MLP) and against Altman's (1968) original Z-score specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernandez Tinoco, Mario & Wilson, Nick, 2013. "Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction among listed companies using accounting, market and macroeconomic variables," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 394-419.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:394-419
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2013.02.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Campa, Domenico & Camacho-Miñano, María-del-Mar, 2015. "The impact of SME’s pre-bankruptcy financial distress on earnings management tools," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 222-234.
    4. repec:eee:ijoais:v:24:y:2017:i:c:p:32-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. John Nkwoma Inekwe, 2016. "Financial Distress, Employees’ Welfare and Entrepreneurship Among SMEs," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 1135-1153, December.
    6. Lu, Yang-Cheng & Wei, Yu-Chen & Chang, Tsang-Yao, 2015. "The effects and applicability of financial media reports on corporate default ratings," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 69-87.
    7. repec:eee:ecmode:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:8-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Betz, Frank & Oprică, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Predicting distress in European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 225-241.
    9. M. Naresh Kumar & V. Sree Hari Rao, 2015. "A New Methodology for Estimating Internal Credit Risk and Bankruptcy Prediction under Basel II Regime," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(1), pages 83-102, June.
    10. Farida Titik Kristanti, 2017. "Corporate Governance, Financial Ratios, Political Risk and Financial Distress, A Survival Analysis," GATR Journals afr130, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    11. repec:eee:ememar:v:37:y:2018:i:c:p:47-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mousavi, Mohammad M. & Ouenniche, Jamal & Xu, Bing, 2015. "Performance evaluation of bankruptcy prediction models: An orientation-free super-efficiency DEA-based framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 64-75.
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    22. Sohel Azad, A.S.M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor & Wickramanayake, Jayasinghe, 2015. "International swap market contagion and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 355-371.
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