IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosys/v42y2018i4p616-624.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction: An appropriate model for listed firms in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Pham Vo Ninh, Binh
  • Do Thanh, Trung
  • Vo Hong, Duc

Abstract

This paper aims to develop a comprehensive model, the first of its kind in Vietnam, for the purpose of predicting financial distress and bankruptcy at Vietnamese listed firms. The period 2003–2016 is used to study the likelihood of financial distress in different scenarios. Various factors are utilized, including (1) accounting factors in the emerging market score model; (2) market factors in the distance-to-default model; and (3) macroeconomic indicators. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUC) curve is used to compare the usefulness of various models that predict financial distress and bankruptcy. Empirical findings from this study show that accounting and market factors, together with macroeconomic fundamental factors, both affect financial distress when they are considered in isolation. However, in a comprehensive model, the effects from accounting factors appear to be more significant than those from market-based factors. The default prediction model, which includes accounting factors with macroeconomic indicators, appears to perform much better than the model comprising market-based factors with macroeconomic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Pham Vo Ninh, Binh & Do Thanh, Trung & Vo Hong, Duc, 2018. "Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction: An appropriate model for listed firms in Vietnam," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 616-624.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:42:y:2018:i:4:p:616-624
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2018.05.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362518304096
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecosys.2018.05.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Asquith & Robert Gertner & David Scharfstein, 1994. "Anatomy of Financial Distress: An Examination of Junk-Bond Issuers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 625-658.
    2. David E Allen & Robert Powell, 2012. "The fluctuating default risk of Australian banks," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(2), pages 297-325, August.
    3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    4. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure - Reply," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 123-127.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5099-5131, December.
    7. Lopez, Jose A., 2004. "The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default, and asset size," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 265-283, April.
    8. Agarwal, Vineet & Taffler, Richard, 2008. "Comparing the performance of market-based and accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1541-1551, August.
    9. Altman, Edward I., 2005. "An emerging market credit scoring system for corporate bonds," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 311-323, December.
    10. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    11. Sudheer Chava & Robert A. Jarrow, 2008. "Bankruptcy Prediction with Industry Effects," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 21, pages 517-549, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Stein, Roger M., 2005. "The relationship between default prediction and lending profits: Integrating ROC analysis and loan pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1213-1236, May.
    13. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    14. Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, Anastasia & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2009. "Performance and Merton-type default risk of listed banks in the EU: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2050-2061, November.
    15. Pindado, Julio & Rodrigues, Luis & de la Torre, Chabela, 2008. "Estimating financial distress likelihood," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(9), pages 995-1003, September.
    16. Richard Whitaker, 1999. "The early stages of financial distress," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(2), pages 123-132, June.
    17. Hernandez Tinoco, Mario & Wilson, Nick, 2013. "Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction among listed companies using accounting, market and macroeconomic variables," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 394-419.
    18. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    19. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Feixue Huang & Yan He, 2010. "Enactment of Default Point in KMV Model on CMBC, SPDB, CMB, Huaxia Bank and SDB," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 1(1), pages 30-36, December.
    22. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aflatooni, Abbas & Ghaderi, Kaveh & Mansouri, Kefsan, 2022. "Sanctions against Iran, political connections and speed of adjustment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    2. Gintare Giriūniene & Lukas Giriūnas & Mangirdas Morkunas & Laura Brucaite, 2019. "A Comparison on Leading Methodologies for Bankruptcy Prediction: The Case of the Construction Sector in Lithuania," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Thao Tran & Ngoc Hong Nguyen & Binh Thien Le & Nam Thanh Vu & Duc Hong Vo, 2023. "Examining financial distress of the Vietnamese listed firms using accounting-based models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(5), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Vo, D.H. & Pham, B.V.-N. & Pham, T.V.-T. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in an Emerging Market," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    5. ElBannan, Mona A., 2021. "On the prediction of financial distress in emerging markets: What matters more? Empirical evidence from Arab spring countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    6. Duc Hong Vo & Binh Ninh Vo Pham & Chi Minh Ho & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in Vietnam," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, September.
    7. Katarina Valaskova & Pavol Durana & Peter Adamko & Jaroslav Jaros, 2020. "Financial Compass for Slovak Enterprises: Modeling Economic Stability of Agricultural Entities," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-16, May.
    8. Dinh, Dung V. & Powell, Robert J. & Vo, Duc H., 2021. "Forecasting corporate financial distress in the Southeast Asian countries: A market-based approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Fedorova, Elena & Ledyaeva, Svetlana & Drogovoz, Pavel & Nevredinov, Alexandr, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bankruptcy filings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Ashraf, Sumaira & Félix, Elisabete G.S. & Serrasqueiro, Zélia, 2020. "Development and testing of an augmented distress prediction model: A comparative study on a developed and an emerging market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duc Hong Vo & Binh Ninh Vo Pham & Chi Minh Ho & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in Vietnam," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Vo, D.H. & Pham, B.V.-N. & Pham, T.V.-T. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in an Emerging Market," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    4. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche & Kaoru Tone, 2023. "A dynamic performance evaluation of distress prediction models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 756-784, July.
    5. Hernandez Tinoco, Mario & Wilson, Nick, 2013. "Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction among listed companies using accounting, market and macroeconomic variables," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 394-419.
    6. John Nkwoma Inekwe, 2016. "Financial Distress, Employees’ Welfare and Entrepreneurship Among SMEs," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 1135-1153, December.
    7. Evangelos C. Charalambakis & Ian Garrett, 2019. "On corporate financial distress prediction: What can we learn from private firms in a developing economy? Evidence from Greece," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 467-491, February.
    8. Nawaf Almaskati & Ron Bird & Yue Lu & Danny Leung, 2019. "The Role of Corporate Governance and Estimation Methods in Predicting Bankruptcy," Working Papers in Economics 19/16, University of Waikato.
    9. Serrano-Cinca, Carlos & Gutiérrez-Nieto, Begoña & Bernate-Valbuena, Martha, 2019. "The use of accounting anomalies indicators to predict business failure," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 353-375.
    10. Paulo V. Carvalho & José D. Curto & Rodrigo Primor, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2054-2072, April.
    11. Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Jin, Yi & Valenzuela, Ma. Rebecca, 2018. "The effects of financial distress: Evidence from US GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 8-21.
    12. Alessandro Bitetto & Stefano Filomeni & Michele Modina, 2021. "Understanding corporate default using Random Forest: The role of accounting and market information," DEM Working Papers Series 205, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    13. Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Reyes Samaniego-Medina & Clara Cardone-Riportella, 2014. "Examining what best explains corporate credit risk: accounting-based versus market-based models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 253-276, April.
    14. Bauer, Julian & Agarwal, Vineet, 2014. "Are hazard models superior to traditional bankruptcy prediction approaches? A comprehensive test," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 432-442.
    15. Surbhi Bhatia & Manish K. Singh, 2022. "Fifty years since Altman (1968): Performance of financial distress prediction models," Working Papers 12, xKDR.
    16. Frank Ranganai Matenda & Mabutho Sibanda & Eriyoti Chikodza & Victor Gumbo, 2022. "Bankruptcy prediction for private firms in developing economies: a scoping review and guidance for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 927-966, December.
    17. B Korcan Ak & Patricia M Dechow & Yuan Sun & Annika Yu Wang, 2013. "The use of financial ratio models to help investors predict and interpret significant corporate events," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(3), pages 553-598, December.
    18. Elsayed, Mohamed & Elshandidy, Tamer, 2020. "Do narrative-related disclosures predict corporate failure? Evidence from UK non-financial publicly quoted firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche, 2018. "Multi-criteria ranking of corporate distress prediction models: empirical evaluation and methodological contributions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 853-886, December.
    20. Jackson, Richard H.G. & Wood, Anthony, 2013. "The performance of insolvency prediction and credit risk models in the UK: A comparative study," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 183-202.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bankruptcy; Distance to default; Financial distress; Fundamentals; Vietnam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:42:y:2018:i:4:p:616-624. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.