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The fluctuating default risk of Australian banks

Author

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  • David E Allen
  • Robert Powell

Abstract

Australian banks are widely considered to have fared far better during the Global Financial Crisis than their global counterparts, continuing to display solid earnings, good capitalization and strong credit ratings. Nonetheless, Australian banks experienced significant deterioration in the market values of assets. We use the KMV/Merton structural methodology, which incorporates market asset values, to examine default probabilities of Australian banks, making extensive international comparisons. We also modify the model to incorporate conditional probability of default, which measures extreme credit risk. We find that, during the Global Financial Crisis, based on extreme asset value fluctuations, Australian bank default probabilities fare only slightly better than their global counterparts.JEL Classification: G01, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • David E Allen & Robert Powell, 2012. "The fluctuating default risk of Australian banks," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(2), pages 297-325, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:37:y:2012:i:2:p:297-325
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Silvio Tarca & Marek Rutkowski, 2014. "Assessing the Basel II Internal Ratings-Based Approach: Empirical Evidence from Australia," Papers 1412.0064, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    2. Allen, David E. & McAleer, Michael & Powell, Robert J. & Singh, Abhay K., 2017. "Volatility Spillovers from Australia's major trading partners across the GFC," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 159-175.
    3. Maria H. Kim & Graham Partington, 2015. "Dynamic forecasts of financial distress of Australian firms," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(1), pages 135-160, February.
    4. Kabir, Md. Nurul & Worthington, Andrew & Gupta, Rakesh, 2015. "Comparative credit risk in Islamic and conventional bank," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 327-353.
    5. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2016. "Emerging trends in Asia-Pacific finance research: A review of recent influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 66-76.
    6. Williams, Barry, 2016. "The impact of non-interest income on bank risk in Australia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 16-37.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; credit risk; default; financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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