The fluctuating default risk of Australian banks
Australian banks are widely considered to have fared far better during the Global Financial Crisis than their global counterparts, continuing to display solid earnings, good capitalization and strong credit ratings. Nonetheless, Australian banks experienced significant deterioration in the market values of assets. We use the KMV/Merton structural methodology, which incorporates market asset values, to examine default probabilities of Australian banks, making extensive international comparisons. We also modify the model to incorporate conditional probability of default, which measures extreme credit risk. We find that, during the Global Financial Crisis, based on extreme asset value fluctuations, Australian bank default probabilities fare only slightly better than their global counterparts.JEL Classification: G01, G21, G28
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Saunders, Anthony & Walter, Ingo, 1994. "Universal Banking in the United States: What Could We Gain? What Could We Lose?," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195080698, December.
- Lopez, Jose A., 2004.
"The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default, and asset size,"
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 265-283, April.
- Jose A. Lopez, 2002. "The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default and asset size," Working Paper Series 2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
- Stiroh, Kevin J, 2004.
"Diversification in Banking: Is Noninterest Income the Answer?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 853-882, October.
- Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Diversification in banking: is noninterest income the answer?," Staff Reports 154, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Viral V. Acharya & Iftekhar Hasan & Anthony Saunders, 2006.
"Should Banks Be Diversified? Evidence from Individual Bank Loan Portfolios,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1355-1412, May.
- Iftekhar Hasan & Anthony Saunders & Viral V. Acharya, 2002. "Should banks be diversified? Evidence from individual bank loan portfolios," BIS Working Papers 118, Bank for International Settlements.
- Stiroh, Kevin J. & Rumble, Adrienne, 2006. "The dark side of diversification: The case of US financial holding companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2131-2161, August.
- M. Davis & V. Lo, 2001. "Infectious defaults," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 382-387.
- Reint Gropp & Florian Heider, 2010.
"The Determinants of Bank Capital Structure,"
Review of Finance,
European Finance Association, vol. 14(4), pages 587-622.
- Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2004. "Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3009-3036, December.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2006.
"An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations,"
NBER Working Papers
12210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 529-563, 04.
- Szu‐Lang Liao & Jui‐Jane Chang, 2010. "Economic determinants of default risks and their impacts on credit derivative pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(11), pages 1058-1081, November.
- Rime, Bertrand, 2001. "Capital requirements and bank behaviour: Empirical evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 789-805, April.
- Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Stefan Weber & Kay Giesecke, 2003. "Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 246, Society for Computational Economics.
- DeYoung, Robert & Roland, Karin P., 2001. "Product Mix and Earnings Volatility at Commercial Banks: Evidence from a Degree of Total Leverage Model," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 54-84, January.
- Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2006. "Credit contagion and aggregate losses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 741-767, May.
- Wilson Sy, 2007. "A Causal Framework for Credit Default Theory," Research Paper Series 204, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
- Kevin Stiroh, 2006. "New Evidence on the Determinants of Bank Risk," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 237-263, December.
- Suparatana Tanthanongsakkun & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2008. "Explaining Credit Ratings of Australian Companiesâ€”An Application of the Merton Model," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(2), pages 261-275, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:37:y:2012:i:2:p:297-325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publishing)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.