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Accounting-based versus market-based cross-sectional models of CDS spreads

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  • Das, Sanjiv R.
  • Hanouna, Paul
  • Sarin, Atulya

Abstract

Models of financial distress rely primarily on accounting-based information (e.g. [Altman, E., 1968. Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance 23, 589-609; Ohlson, J., 1980. Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research 19, 109-131]) or market-based information (e.g. [Merton, R.C., 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 29, 449-470]). In this paper, we provide evidence on the relative performance of these two classes of models. Using a sample of 2860 quarterly CDS spreads we find that a model of distress using accounting metrics performs comparably to market-based structural models of default. Moreover, a model using both sources of information performs better than either of the two models. Overall, our results suggest that both sources of information (accounting- and market-based) are complementary in pricing distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Das, Sanjiv R. & Hanouna, Paul & Sarin, Atulya, 2009. "Accounting-based versus market-based cross-sectional models of CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 719-730, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:4:p:719-730
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Zhang, Gaiyan & Zhang, Sanjian Bill, 2016. "CDS pricing and accounting disclosures: Evidence from U.S. bank holding corporations around the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 33-44.
    2. Chen, Tsung-Kang & Liao, Hsien-Hsing & Tsai, Pei-Ling, 2011. "Internal liquidity risk in corporate bond yield spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 978-987, April.
    3. Demirovic, Amer & Tucker, Jon & Guermat, Cherif, 2015. "Accounting data and the credit spread: An empirical investigation," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 233-250.
    4. Das, Sanjiv & Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar, 2014. "Did CDS trading improve the market for corporate bonds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 495-525.
    5. Haerri, Matthias & Morkoetter, Stefan & Westerfeld, Simone, 2014. "Sovereign Risk and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Default Swaps," Working Papers on Finance 1423, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Feb 2015.
    6. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    7. repec:pab:wpbsad:12.07 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Correia, Maria & Kang, Johnny & Richardson, Scott, 2017. "Asset volatility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84405, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2017. "Understanding transactions prices in the credit default swaps market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-27.
    10. Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Reyes Samaniego-Medina & Clara Cardone-Riportella, 2012. "Examining what best explains corporate credit risk: accounting-based versus market-based models," Working Papers 12.03, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
    11. Câmara, António & Popova, Ivilina & Simkins, Betty, 2012. "A comparative study of the probability of default for global financial firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 717-732.
    12. Tian, Shaonan & Yu, Yan & Guo, Hui, 2015. "Variable selection and corporate bankruptcy forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 89-100.
    13. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Lambe, Brendan John, 2015. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 447-458.
    14. Dan Givoly & Carla Hayn & Sharon Katz, 2017. "The changing relevance of accounting information to debt holders over time," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 64-108, March.
    15. Huang, Hsing-Hua & Lee, Han-Hsing, 2013. "Product market competition and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 324-340.
    16. Baik, Bok & Kim, Young Jun & Kim, Jungbae & Lee, Su Jeong, 2015. "Usefulness of earnings in credit markets: Korean evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 93-113.
    17. Tsai, Feng-Tse & Lu, Hsin-Min & Hung, Mao-Wei, 2016. "The impact of news articles and corporate disclosure on credit risk valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 100-116.
    18. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2010. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-753, April.
    19. Enrico Laghi & Michele Di Marcantonio & Eugenio D'Amico, 2014. "Estimating credit default swap spreads using accounting data, market quotes and credit ratings: the European Banks Case," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(2-3-4), pages 59-81.
    20. Samaniego-Medina, Reyes & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & di Pietro, Filippo, 2016. "Determinants of bank CDS spreads in Europe," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-15.
    21. Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Juan Ignacio & Mayordomo, Sergio & Romo, Juan, 2009. "Are There Arbitrage Opportunities in Credit Derivatives Markets? A New Test and an Application to the Case of CDS and ASPs," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb096303, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    22. Carlos Caceres & Fabiano Rodrigues-Bastos, 2016. "Understanding Corporate Vulnerabilities in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 16/80, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Doumpos, Michael & Niklis, Dimitrios & Zopounidis, Constantin & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2015. "Combining accounting data and a structural model for predicting credit ratings: Empirical evidence from European listed firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 599-607.
    24. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Rhee, Yuna & Yoon, Ji Hee, 2016. "Business cycle and credit risk modeling with jump risks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 15-36.

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