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Do changes in distance-to-default anticipate changes in the credit rating?

Author

Listed:
  • Nidhi Aggarwal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Manish Singh

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Susan Thomas

    () (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

Distance-to-default (DtD) from the Merton model has been used in the credit risk literature, most successfully as an input into reduced form models for forecasting default. In this paper, we suggest that the change in the DtD is informative for predicting change in the credit rating. This is directly useful for situations where forecasts of credit rating changes are required. More generally, it contributes to our knowledge about reduced form models of credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Nidhi Aggarwal & Manish Singh & Susan Thomas, 2012. "Do changes in distance-to-default anticipate changes in the credit rating?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-010, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2012-010
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    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2012-010.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    3. Gianluca Oderda & Michel M. Dacorogna & Tobias Jung, 2003. "Credit Risk Models - Do They Deliver Their Promises? A Quantitative Assessment," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(2), pages 177-195, July.
    4. repec:bla:joares:v:18:y:1980:i:1:p:109-131 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2015. "“Sovereigns and banks in the euro area: a tale of two crises”," IREA Working Papers 201504, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2015.
    2. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-184.
    3. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    4. Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2014. "Forward looking banking stress in EMU countries," Working Papers 14-10, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Distance to Default; rating downgrades; rating change; forecasts; event study analysis; probit models; simulation; bootstrap; crisis analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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