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A varying-coefficient default model

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  • Hwang, Ruey-Ching

Abstract

In this paper, a default prediction method based on the discrete-time varying-coefficient hazard model (DVHM) is proposed. The new model is constructed by replacing the constant coefficients of firm-specific predictors in the discrete-time hazard model (DHM; see Shumway, 2001; and Chava & Jarrow, 2004) with the smooth functions of macroeconomic variables. Thus, it allows the effects of those firm-specific predictors on the default prediction to change with the macroeconomic dynamics (Pesaran, Schuermann, Treutler, & Weiner, 2006). The coefficient functions in the new model are estimated by a local likelihood approach. One real panel dataset is used to illustrate the proposed methodology. Using an expanding rolling window approach, the empirical results confirm that DVHM has a better and more robust performance than the usual DHM, in the sense that it yields more accurate predicted numbers of defaults and predictive intervals through out-of-sample analysis. Thus, the proposed model is a useful alternative for studying default losses on portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Hwang, Ruey-Ching, 2012. "A varying-coefficient default model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 675-688.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:3:p:675-688
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.11.006
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    1. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1383-1393 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. El Kalak, Izidin & Hudson, Robert, 2016. "The effect of size on the failure probabilities of SMEs: An empirical study on the US market using discrete hazard model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 135-145.
    3. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Huimin Chung & C. K. Chu, 2016. "A Two-Stage Probit Model for Predicting Recovery Rates," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 311-339, December.
    4. Jairaj Gupta & Andros Gregoriou & Jerome Healy, 2015. "Forecasting bankruptcy for SMEs using hazard function: To what extent does size matter?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 845-869, November.

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