IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

A varying-coefficient default model

  • Hwang, Ruey-Ching
Registered author(s):

    In this paper, a default prediction method based on the discrete-time varying-coefficient hazard model (DVHM) is proposed. The new model is constructed by replacing the constant coefficients of firm-specific predictors in the discrete-time hazard model (DHM; see Shumway, 2001; and Chava & Jarrow, 2004) with the smooth functions of macroeconomic variables. Thus, it allows the effects of those firm-specific predictors on the default prediction to change with the macroeconomic dynamics (Pesaran, Schuermann, Treutler, & Weiner, 2006). The coefficient functions in the new model are estimated by a local likelihood approach. One real panel dataset is used to illustrate the proposed methodology. Using an expanding rolling window approach, the empirical results confirm that DVHM has a better and more robust performance than the usual DHM, in the sense that it yields more accurate predicted numbers of defaults and predictive intervals through out-of-sample analysis. Thus, the proposed model is a useful alternative for studying default losses on portfolios.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 675-688

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:3:p:675-688
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.11.006
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
    2. Wang, Lifeng & Li, Hongzhe & Huang, Jianhua Z., 2008. "Variable Selection in Nonparametric Varying-Coefficient Models for Analysis of Repeated Measurements," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1556-1569.
    3. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    4. Guttler, Andre & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2007. "The adjustment of credit ratings in advance of defaults," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 751-767, March.
    5. Kauermann, Goran, 2005. "Penalized spline smoothing in multivariable survival models with varying coefficients," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 169-186, April.
    6. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    7. Szilagyi, Jan & Hilscher, Jens & Campbell, John, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Scholarly Articles 3199070, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    8. Sudheer Chava & Catalina Stefanescu & Stuart Turnbull, 2011. "Modeling the Loss Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1267-1287, July.
    9. Chung-Hua Shen & Hsiang-Lin Chih, 2007. "Earnings Management and Corporate Governance in Asia's Emerging Markets," Corporate Governance: An International Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 999-1021, 09.
    10. Duffie, Darrell, 2005. "Credit risk modeling with affine processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2751-2802, November.
    11. Ruey-Ching Hwang & K. F. Cheng & Jack C. Lee, 2007. "A semiparametric method for predicting bankruptcy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 317-342.
    12. Darrell Duffie & Andreas Eckner & Guillaume Horel & Leandro Saita, 2009. "Frailty Correlated Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2089-2123, October.
    13. Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Treutler, B-J. & Weiner, S.M., 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0330, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. K. F. Cheng & C. K. Chu & Ruey-Ching Hwang, 2010. "Predicting bankruptcy using the discrete-time semiparametric hazard model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 1055-1066.
    15. Jianqing Fan & Qiwei Yao & Zongwu Cai, 2000. "Adaptive varying-coefficient linear models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6865, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Marquering, Wessel & Verbeek, Marno, 2004. "The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(02), pages 407-429, June.
    17. Li, Qi, et al, 2002. "Semiparametric Smooth Coefficient Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 412-22, July.
    18. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
    19. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Jhao-Siang Siao & Huimin Chung & C. Chu, 2011. "Assessing bankruptcy prediction models via information content of technical inefficiency," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 263-273, December.
    20. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    21. Cheng, Ming-Yen & Zhang, Wenyang & Chen, Lu-Hung, 2009. "Statistical Estimation in Generalized Multiparameter Likelihood Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(487), pages 1179-1191.
    22. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
    23. Stefanescu, Catalina & Tunaru, Radu & Turnbull, Stuart, 2009. "The credit rating process and estimation of transition probabilities: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 216-234, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:3:p:675-688. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.