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The effect of size on the failure probabilities of SMEs: An empirical study on the US market using discrete hazard model

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  • El Kalak, Izidin
  • Hudson, Robert

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which the size affects the SME probabilities of bankruptcy. Using a dataset of (11,117) US non-financial firms, of which (465) filed for insolvency under chapters 7/11 between 1980 and 2013. We forecast the bankruptcy probabilities by developing four discrete-time duration-dependent hazard models for SMEs, Micro, Small, and Medium firms. A comparison of the default prediction models for medium firms and SMEs suggests that an almost identical set of explanatory variables affect the default probabilities leading us to believe that treating each of these groups separately has no material impact on the decision making process. However, comparisons between the micro and small firms with the SMEs firms strongly suggest that these categories need to be considered separately when modelling their credit risk.

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  • El Kalak, Izidin & Hudson, Robert, 2016. "The effect of size on the failure probabilities of SMEs: An empirical study on the US market using discrete hazard model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 135-145.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:43:y:2016:i:c:p:135-145
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2015.11.009
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    Cited by:

    1. Kalak, Izidin El & Azevedo, Alcino & Hudson, Robert & Karim, Mohamad Abd, 2017. "Stock liquidity and SMEs’ likelihood of bankruptcy: Evidence from the US market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1383-1393.
    2. Christophe Schalck & Meryem Yankol-Schalck, 2021. "Predicting French SME failures: new evidence from machine learning techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(51), pages 5948-5963, November.
    3. Modina, Michele & Pietrovito, Filomena & Gallucci, Carmen & Formisano, Vincenzo, 2023. "Predicting SMEs’ default risk: Evidence from bank-firm relationship data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 254-268.
    4. Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska, 2021. "Bankruptcy prediction of small- and medium-sized enterprises in Poland based on the LDA and SVM methods," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 179-195, March.
    5. Francesco Ciampi & Alessandro Giannozzi & Giacomo Marzi & Edward I. Altman, 2021. "Rethinking SME default prediction: a systematic literature review and future perspectives," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(3), pages 2141-2188, March.
    6. David Veganzones, 2022. "Corporate failure prediction using threshold‐based models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 956-979, August.
    7. Min Bai & Samir Harith, 2023. "Measuring SMEs Risk – Evidence from Malaysia," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-32, July.
    8. Antonio Fabio Forgione & Carlo Migliardo, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the impact of trade credit on bank debt restructuring," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(2), pages 415-438, July.
    9. Rémi Stellian & Gabriel I. Penagos & Jenny P. Danna-Buitrago, 2021. "Firms in financial distress: evidence from inter-firm payment networks with volatility driven by ‘animal spirits’," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(1), pages 59-101, January.
    10. Tingqiang Chen & Suyang Wang, 2023. "Incomplete information model of credit default of micro and small enterprises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2956-2974, July.
    11. Zakia Jabeen & Jabir Ali & Nadia Yusuf, 2021. "Difference in business obstacles faced by firms across sizes: evidence from enterprise survey data of India," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 11(1), pages 71-81, December.
    12. Carmen Gallucci & Rosalia Santullli & Michele Modina & Vincenzo Formisano, 2023. "Financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a Bayesian approach to predict SMEs’ default," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 27(3), pages 873-892, September.
    13. Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska, 2019. "Predicting Micro-Enterprise Failures Using Data Mining Techniques," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, February.
    14. Stefan Szymanski, 2017. "Entry into exit: insolvency in English professional football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 419-444, September.
    15. Naradda Gamage, Sisira Kumara & Ekanayake, EMS & Abeyrathne, GAKNJ & Prasanna, RPIR & Jayasundara, JMSB & Rajapakshe, PSK, 2019. "Global Challenges and Survival Strategies of the SMEs in the Era of Economic Globalization: A Systematic Review," MPRA Paper 98419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Michal Karas & Mária Režòáková, 2021. "The role of financial constraint factors in predicting SME default," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(4), pages 859-883, December.
    17. Lisa Crosato & Caterina Liberati & Marco Repetto, 2021. "Look Who's Talking: Interpretable Machine Learning for Assessing Italian SMEs Credit Default," Papers 2108.13914, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    18. Edmundo Escrivão Filho & Alexandre Farias Albuquerque & Marcelo Seido Nagano & Luiz Adalberto Philippsen Junior & Jair de Oliveira, 2017. "Identifying SME mortality factors in the life cycle stages: an empirical approach of relevant factors for small business owner-managers in Brazil," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kozłowski, Łukasz, 2018. "SMEs' near-death experiences. Do local banks extend a helping hand?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 47-65.
    20. David Alaminos & Agustín del Castillo & Manuel Ángel Fernández, 2016. "A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, November.
    21. Wei Yu & Huiqin Huang & Xinyan Kong & Keying Zhu, 2023. "Can Digital Inclusive Finance Improve the Financial Performance of SMEs?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, January.
    22. Rémi Stellian & Jenny P. Danna‐Buitrago, 2020. "Financial distress, free cash flow, and interfirm payment network: Evidence from an agent‐based model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 598-616, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SMEs; Bankruptcy; Size; Discrete-time duration-dependent hazard model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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