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An analysis of new firm survival using a hazard function

Author

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  • P. Holmes
  • A. Hunt
  • I. Stone

Abstract

A unique data set is used to provide a detailed examination of the survival of newly established manufacturing firms in north-east England. Using data on 781 firms established between 1973 and 2001, log-logistic hazard models are estimated separately for (i) micro-enterprises and (ii) small and medium establishments (SMEs). Both micro-enterprises and SMEs show clear evidence of positive duration dependence, followed by negative duration dependence. We find the two firm types are differentially affected by firm-specific and macro-economic variables. Increases in initial plant size impact negatively on micro-enterprise survival and positively on SME survival.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Holmes & A. Hunt & I. Stone, 2010. "An analysis of new firm survival using a hazard function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 185-195.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:2:p:185-195
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701579234
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guimarães Barbosa, Evaldo, 2016. "External determinants of small business survival – The overwhelming impact of GDP and other environmental factors and a new proposed framework," MPRA Paper 73346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ugur, Mehmet & Trushin, Eshref & Solomon, Edna, 2016. "Inverted-U relationship between R&D intensity and survival: Evidence on scale and complementarity effects in UK data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1474-1492.
    3. El Kalak, Izidin & Hudson, Robert, 2016. "The effect of size on the failure probabilities of SMEs: An empirical study on the US market using discrete hazard model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 135-145.
    4. Guimarães Barbosa, Evaldo, 2016. "The relationships between, on the hand, size, growth and age of the firm and, on the other hand, small business survival – a constructive critique and a proposal of a new framework," MPRA Paper 72111, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Varum, Celeste & Rocha, Vera Catarina & Valente da Silva, Hélder, 2014. "Economic slowdowns, hazard rates and foreign ownership," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 761-773.
    6. Stevenson, Marcie & Artz, Georgeanne, 2017. "Improving rural business development, one firm at a time: A look at the effects of the USDA’s Value-Added Producer Grant on firm survival," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252785, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. repec:spr:manint:v:54:y:2014:i:5:d:10.1007_s11575-014-0209-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dreyer, Heiko & Anders, Sven M., 2014. "Experience matters - trade duration and survival of coffee exports," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182758, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Mas-Verdú, Francisco & Ribeiro-Soriano, Domingo & Roig-Tierno, Norat, 2015. "Firm survival: The role of incubators and business characteristics," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 793-796.
    10. Paulo Maçãs Nunes & Zélia Serrasqueiro & Jacinto Vidigal da Silva, 2014. "Family-owned and non family-owned SMEs: empirical evidence of survival determinants," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 68-76.
    11. repec:bla:asiaec:v:31:y:2017:i:1:p:83-109 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Anabela Santos & Paulo Neto & Maria Manuel Serrano, 2016. "A long-term mortality analysis of subsidized firms in rural areas: an empirical study in the Portuguese Alentejo region," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(1), pages 125-151, April.
    13. Peter Nunnenkamp & Hannes Öhler & Tillmann Schwörer, 2011. "US based NGOs in International Development Cooperation: Survival of the Fittest?," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 83, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    14. Gieure, Clara & Buendía-Martínez, Inmaculada, 2016. "Determinants of translation-firm survival: A fuzzy set analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 5377-5382.
    15. Doan, Quang Hung & Vu, Hoang Nam & Dao, Ngoc Tien, 2013. "Sub-National Institutions and Firm Survival in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 63653, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Rafaelita M. Aldaba, . "Understanding the Relationship Between Globalization and Survival of Philippine SMEs," Chapters, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    17. Guidi, Francesco & Solomon, Edna & Trushin, Eshref & Ugur, Mehmet, 2015. "Inverted-U relationship between innovation and survival: Evidence from firm-level UK data," EconStor Preprints 110896, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    18. Juan Felipe Parra, 2011. "Determinantes de la probabilidad de cierre de nuevas empresas en Bogotá," REVISTA FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS, UNIVERSIDAD MILITAR NUEVA GRANADA, June.
    19. Nunnenkamp, Peter & Öhler, Hannes & Schwörer, Tillmann, 2013. "US based NGOs in International Development: Financial and Economic Determinants of Survival," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 45-65.
    20. Salvador Vivas-López & Francisco Puig & Victor Oltra & Miguel González-Loureiro, 2016. "Globalized Markets and Startup Dynamics in Mature Manufacturing Industries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 7(4), pages 947-962, December.
    21. Joana Afonso & Isabel Mota & Sandra Silva, 2012. "Micro Credit and Territory: Portugal as a case study," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 35, pages 40-58, June.
    22. Tristan Boyer & Régis Blazy, 2014. "Born to be alive? The survival of innovative and non-innovative French micro-start-ups," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 669-683, April.
    23. Miettinen Marika Rosanna & Littunen Hannu, 2013. "Factors Contributing to the Success of Start-Up Firms Using Two-Point or Multiple-Point Scale Models," Entrepreneurship Research Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 449-481, June.
    24. Tien Manh Vu & Hiroyuki Yamada & Tsunehiro Otsuki, 2014. "The rise and fall of multinational enterprises in Vietnam: survival analysis using census data during 2000-2011," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E001, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    25. Jairaj Gupta & Andros Gregoriou & Jerome Healy, 2015. "Forecasting bankruptcy for SMEs using hazard function: To what extent does size matter?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 845-869, November.

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