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Is the Distance to Default a Good Measure in Predicting Bank Failures? Case Studies

Author

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  • Kimie Harada
  • Takatoshi Ito
  • Shuhei Takahashi

Abstract

This paper examines the movements of the Distance to Default (DD), a market-based measure of corporate default risk, of eight failed Japanese banks in order to evaluate the predictive power of the DD measure for bank failures. The DD became smaller in anticipation of failure in many cases. The DD spread, defined as the DD of a failed bank minus the DD of sound banks, was also a useful indicator for deterioration of a failed bank's health. For some banks, neither the DD nor the DD spread predicted the failures. However, those results were partly due to lack of transparency in financial statements and disclosed information.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimie Harada & Takatoshi Ito & Shuhei Takahashi, 2010. "Is the Distance to Default a Good Measure in Predicting Bank Failures? Case Studies," NBER Working Papers 16182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16182 Note: IFM ME
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Peimin & Wu, Chunchi, 2014. "Default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 211-226.
    2. Milne, Alistair, 2014. "Distance to default and the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 26-36.
    3. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Sovereign-bank linkages: Quantifying directional intensity of risk transfers in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 137-164.
    4. Serkan Arslanalp & Yin Liao, 2015. "Contingent Liabilities from Banks; How to Track Them?," IMF Working Papers 15/255, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Yener Altunbas & Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marques-Ibanez, 2014. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Bank Risk?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 95-136, March.
    6. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    7. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-184.
    8. Flannery, Mark J. & Giacomini, Emanuela, 2015. "Maintaining adequate bank capital: An empirical analysis of the supervision of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 236-249.
    9. Carlson Mark A & King Thomas & Lewis Kurt, 2011. "Distress in the Financial Sector and Economic Activity," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, June.
    10. Martín Saldías, 2012. "Systemic risk analysis and option-based theory and information," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Nozawa, Yoshio, 2014. "What Drives the Cross-Section of Credit Spreads?: A Variance Decomposition Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Chia-Chien Chang & Yung -Jen Chung, 2016. "Can Basel Iii Liquidity Risk Measures Explain Taiwan Bank Failures," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 3205450, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    13. Ignacio Tirado, 2017. "Banking Crises and the Japanese Legal Framework," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    14. Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2014. "Forward looking banking stress in EMU countries," Working Papers 14-10, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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