Japan Premium and Stock Prices: Two Mirrors of Japanese Banking Crises
This paper investigates how financial troubles among Japanese banks in the second half of the 1990s were viewed by the market. Two indicators, the Japan premium and the stock price index of the banking sector in Tokyo, were examined. Econometric tests were employed to see whether different kinds of investors saw the banking crisis differently, and what kind of news had most impacts on market pricing of Japanese banks. Our findings are as follows. (1) Factors that pushed up the Japan Premium most were the Daiwa Bank incidence in the fall of 1995, failures of large financial institutions in November 1997, and uncertainties in the resolution of banking problem in fall 1998. (2) The bank stock index declined (in relative to the general stock index) most in bank failures, in particular by the Yamaichi Securities failure in November 1997. (3) Individual failures of financial institutions may or may not have impact on other banks' stock prices. (4) The bank stock index and the general stock index historically had co-movements, but the structural changes occurred in the co-movement relationship at around the summer of 1995. (5) News that affected Japan premium and bank stocks are sometimes different. The bank stock price index Granger-causes the Japan premium, but the reverse does not hold. The result is consistent with the view that Japan premium reflects both domestic structural problems and banks' liquidity problem in the euro dollar market, while the bank stock prices reflect the former only.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as as "Credit Derivatives Premium As A New Japan Premium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 36, no. 5 (October 2004): 965-968|
|Note:||AP CF IFM|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Quintos, Carmela E., 1998. "Stability tests in error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-315, February.
- Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S., 2001.
"Determinants of the Japan premium: actions speak louder than words,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 283-305, April.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1998. "Determinants of the Japan premium: actions speak louder than words," Working Papers 98-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1999. "Determinants of the Japan Premium: Actions Speak Louder Than Words," NBER Working Papers 7251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:ime:imemes:v:19:y:2001:i:s1:p:239-70 is not listed on IDEAS
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Takatoshi Ito & Kimie Harada, 2003. "Market Evaluations of Banking Fragility in Japan: Japan Premium, Stock Prices, and Credit Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 9589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
- Saito, Makoto & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Financial Crises As the Failure of Arbitrage: Implications for Monetary Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 239-270, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7997. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.