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L’estimation de modèles avec changements structurels multiples

Listed author(s):
  • Perron, Pierre

    (Centre de recherche et développement en économique (C.R.D.E.), Département de sciences économiques, Université de Montréal)

This paper considers the problem of estimation in the linear regression model with multiple structural changes. We first survey the class of models analyzed by Bai and Perron (1996) and some of their asymptotic results. We then discuss in greater details a numerical algorithm, based on the principle of dynamic programming, that permits obtaining estimates of the break dates very efficiently even if there is a large number of changes. We also discuss issues related to the estimation of the number of breaks using information criteria. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the merits and drawbacks of such procedures. Finally, some empirical examples highlight the practical importance of our results. Cette étude considère le problème de l’estimation de modèles de régressions linéaires avec changements structurels multiples. Nous passons en revue la classe de modèles analysée par Bai et Perron (1996) et certains de leurs résultats asymptotiques. Nous discutons plus en détail un algorithme de calcul, basé sur les principes de la programmation dynamique, qui permet d’obtenir des estimations de façon très efficace même si le nombre de points de rupture est élevé. Ensuite, nous discutons du problème d’estimation de ce nombre de changements via certains critères d’information. Des résultats de simulations sont présentés pour illustrer les mérites et les défauts de ces procédures. Finalement, certains résultats empiriques mettent en évidence l’importance pratique de nos résultats.

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Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 73 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (mars-juin-septembre)
Pages: 457-505

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:73:y:1997:i:1:p:457-505
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