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L'estimation de modèles avec changements structurels multiples

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  • Pierre Perron

    (Centre de recherche et développement en économique (C.R.D.E.) - Département de sciences économiques, Université de Montréal)

Abstract

Cette étude considère le problème de l'estimation de modèles de régressions linéaires avec changements structurels multiples. Nous passons en revue la classe de modèles analysée par Bai et Perron (1996) et certains de leurs résultats asymptotiques. Nous discutons plus en détail un algorithme de calcul, basé sur les principes de la programmation dynamique, qui permet d'obtenir des estimations de façon très efficace même si le nombre de points de rupture est élevé. Ensuite, nous discutons du problème d'estimation de ce nombre de changements via certains critères d'information. Des résultats de simulations sont présentés pour illustrer les mérites et les défauts de ces procédures. Finalement, certains résultats empiriques mettent en évidence l'importance pratique de nos résultats.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Perron, 2020. "L'estimation de modèles avec changements structurels multiples," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 96(4), pages 789-837.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0239
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    1. Moustfa Ismael Khaleel & Ahmed Younis Jabbar & Maha Kalai & Rima Aloulou & Kamel Helali, 2024. "An Applied Study of the Symmetric and Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices and International Financial Markets on Economic Growth in Iraq," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 66-80, July.
    2. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Papers 1805.03807, arXiv.org.
    3. Jamel JOUINI & Mohamed BOUTAHAR, 2007. "wrong estimation of the true number of shifts in structural break models: Theoretical and numerical evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(3), pages 1-10.
    4. Pedro Bação, 2006. "The Performance of Structural Change Tests," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 611-628, August.
    5. Lise Pichette, 2000. "Les effets réels du cours des actions sur la consommation," Staff Working Papers 00-21, Bank of Canada.
    6. Erhard Reschenhofer & David Preinerstorfer & Lukas Steinberger, 2013. "Non-monotonic penalizing for the number of structural breaks," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(6), pages 2585-2598, December.
    7. Jamel JOUINI & Mohamed BOUTAHAR, 2007. "Spuriousness of information criteria when selecting the number of breaks in stationary AR(p) process," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(38), pages 1-11.
    8. Mohamed Boutahar & Mustapha Belkhouja, 2007. "Le Changement Structurel Dans Un Environnement Mémoire Longue," Working Papers halshs-00352610, HAL.

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