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Spuriousness of information criteria when selecting the number of breaks in stationary AR(p) process

  • Jamel JOUINI

    ()

    (F.S.E.G.N., E.S.S.A.I.T. and L.E.G.I., Université 7 Novembre de Carthage, Tunisie, GREQAM, Université de la Méditerranée, France)

  • Mohamed BOUTAHAR

    ()

    (GREQAM and Faculté des Sciences, Université de la Méditerranée, France)

This note proves analytically and shows by a Monte Carlo analysis the spuriousness that arises by some model selection criteria when selecting the number of breaks in stationary AR(p) process without changes for a regression with mean-shifts. This brings a theoretical support to the Perron's (1997) simulation results which indicate that this phenomenon occurs for an AR(1) process.

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Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 3 (2007)
Issue (Month): 38 ()
Pages: 1-11

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-07c20014
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  1. Bai, Jushan, 1998. "A Note On Spurious Break," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(05), pages 663-669, October.
  2. Jouini, Jamel & Boutahar, Mohamed, 2005. "Evidence on structural changes in U.S. time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 391-422, May.
  3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:3:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Nunes, Luis C. & Newbold, Paul & Chung-Ming Kuan, 1996. "Spurious number of breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 175-178, February.
  5. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  6. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  7. Jamel JOUINI & Mohamed BOUTAHAR, 2007. "wrong estimation of the true number of shifts in structural break models: Theoretical and numerical evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(3), pages 1-10.
  8. Lai, T. L. & Wei, C. Z., 1983. "Asymptotic properties of general autoregressive models and strong consistency of least-squares estimates of their parameters," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, March.
  9. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
  10. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "L’estimation de modèles avec changements structurels multiples," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(1), pages 457-505, mars-juin.
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