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Contingent Liabilities from Banks: How to Track Them?

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  • Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
  • Yin Liao

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a methodology to assess potential losses to the government that could arise from bank failures. The approach is intended to be simple, parsimonious, and used in real time. It generates an index that we call the banking sector contingent liability index (BCLI), based on the banking sector’s size, concentration, diversification, leverage, and riskiness of assets. The index is illustrated for 32 advanced and emerging market economies from 2006 to 2013, as well as a group of banks including global systemically important banks (G-SIBs).

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Yin Liao, 2015. "Contingent Liabilities from Banks: How to Track Them?," IMF Working Papers 2015/255, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/255
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43443
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    7. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
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    11. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Tryggvi Gudmundsson, 2016. "Whose Credit Line is it Anyway: An Update on Banks' Implicit Subsidies," IMF Working Papers 2016/224, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Brůha, Jan & Kočenda, Evžen, 2018. "Financial stability in Europe: Banking and sovereign risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 305-321.
    3. Jondeau, Eric & Khalilzadeh, Amir, 2022. "Predicting the stressed expected loss of large U.S. banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Igor V. Belyakov, 2017. "Monitoring and Analysis of Contingent Budget Liabilities to Financial System," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 4, pages 71-84, August.

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