IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Has the global banking system become more fragile over time ?

  • Anginer, Deniz
  • Demirguc-Kunt, Asli

This paper examines time-series and cross-country variations in default risk co-dependence in the global banking system. The authors construct a default risk measure for all publicly traded banks using the Merton contingent claim model, and examine the evolution of the correlation structure of default risk for more than 1,800 banks in more than 60 countries. They find that there has been a significant increase in default risk co-dependence over the three-year period leading to the financial crisis. They also find that countries that are more integrated, and that have liberalized financial systems and weak banking supervision, have higher co-dependence in their banking sector. The results support an increase in scope for international supervisory co-operation, as well as capital charges for"too-connected-to-fail"institutions that can impose significant externalities.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2011/11/08/000158349_20111108124433/Rendered/PDF/WPS5849.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5849.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5849
Contact details of provider: Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2005. "Estimating Systemic Risk in the International Financial System," MPRA Paper 6658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. repec:dgr:kubcen:201059 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Gary B. Gorton, 2008. "The Subprime Panic," NBER Working Papers 14398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gianni De Nicoló & Myron L. Kwast, 2002. "Systemic Risk and Financial Consolidation: Are they Related?," IMF Working Papers 02/55, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
  6. Gadi Barlevy & Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "Rational Panics and Stock Market Crashes," CRSP working papers 483, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  7. Ioannidou, Vasso P. & Penas, María Fabiana, 2010. "Deposit insurance and bank risk-taking: Evidence from internal loan ratings," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 95-115, January.
  8. De Nicolo, Gianni & Kwast, Myron L., 2002. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: Are they related?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 861-880, May.
  9. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Gama, Paulo M., 2005. "Have World, Country, and Industry Risks Changed over Time? An Investigation of the Volatility of Developed Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 195-222, March.
  10. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Has Finance Made the World Riskier?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 499-533.
  11. Simeon Djankov & Caralee McLiesh & Andrei Shleifer, 2005. "Private Credit in 129 Countries," NBER Working Papers 11078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
  13. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
  14. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2012. "Aggregate Idiosyncratic Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(06), pages 1155-1185, December.
  15. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2002. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 8937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
  17. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Systemically important banks: an analysis for the European banking system," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 73-89, April.
  18. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  19. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones & Eswar Prasad, 2004. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  20. Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
  21. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
  22. Hawkesby, Christian & Marsh, Ian W. & Stevens, Ibrahim, 2007. "Comovements in the equity prices of large complex financial institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 391-411, March.
  23. Campbell, John Y. & Hilscher, Jens & Szilagyi, Jan, 2005. "In search of distress risk," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  24. Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean Charles Rochet, 1998. "Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank," Economics Working Papers 440, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
  25. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Lee, Kuan-Hui & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2012. "Understanding commonality in liquidity around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 82-112.
  27. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Kane, Edward J. & Laeven, Luc, 2006. "Determinants of deposit-insurance adoption and design," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3849, The World Bank.
  28. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2004. "Market discipline and deposit insurance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 375-399, March.
  29. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-country empirical studies of systemic bank distress : a survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3719, The World Bank.
  30. Acharya, Viral V, 2009. "A Theory of Systemic Risk and Design of Prudential Bank Regulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7164, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
  32. Sudheer Chava & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2006. "The effect of a banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers," Proceedings 1030, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  33. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
  34. Lawrence Sáez & Xianwen Shi, 2004. "Liquidity Pools, Risk Sharing, and Financial Contagion," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 5-23, February.
  35. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "A Framework for Assessing the Systemic Risk of Major Financial Institutions," BIS Working Papers 281, Bank for International Settlements.
  36. n.d., 2011. "Book Review," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2011(3), pages 133-141.
  37. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Growth Volatility and Financial Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 10560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Repullo, Rafael, 2003. "Capital Requirements, Market Power and Risk-Taking in Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 3721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Beck , Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time - data and analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4943, The World Bank.
  40. Renzo G. Avesani & Jing Li & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2006. "A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing tool: A Multifactor Nth-to-Default CDS Basket," IMF Working Papers 06/105, International Monetary Fund.
  41. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, 04.
  42. Stijn Claessens & Neeltje van Horen, 2011. "Foreign Banks: Trends, Impact and Financial Stability," DNB Working Papers 330, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  43. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
  44. Christian Hawkesby & Ian W Marsh & Ibrahim Stevens, 2005. "Comovements in the prices of securities issued by large complex financial institutions," Bank of England working papers 256, Bank of England.
  45. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 05/96, International Monetary Fund.
  46. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-192, University of California at Berkeley.
  47. Kathy Yuan, 2005. "Asymmetric Price Movements and Borrowing Constraints: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model of Crises, Contagion, and Confusion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 379-411, 02.
  48. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Toni Gravelle, 2005. "The End: A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 05/231, International Monetary Fund.
  49. Schüler, Martin, 2002. "The threat of systemic risk in banking: evidence for Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-21, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  50. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediary leverage and value at risk," Staff Reports 338, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  51. Schüler, Martin, 2002. "The threat of systemic risk in banking: Evidence for Europe," Research Notes 3a, Deutsche Bank Research.
  52. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "On the pricing of contingent claims and the Modigliani-Miller theorem," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-249, November.
  53. Jean-Pierre Zigrand & Hyun Song Shin & Jon Danielsson, 2010. "Risk Appetite and Endogenous Risk," FMG Discussion Papers dp647, Financial Markets Group.
  54. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & René M. Stulz, 2010. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1789-1816, October.
  55. Schüler, Martin & Schröder, Michael, 2003. "Systemic Risk in European Banking: Evidence from Bivariate GARCH Models," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-11, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  56. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
  57. Noy, Ilan, 2004. "Financial liberalization, prudential supervision, and the onset of banking crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 341-359, September.
  58. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
  59. Abdul Abiad & Enrica Detragiache & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "A New Database of Financial Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 281-302, June.
  60. Andrea Brasili & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Co-movements in EU banks’ fragility: a dynamic factor model approach," Finance 0411011, EconWPA, revised 02 Nov 2005.
  61. Geert Bekaert & Xiaozheng Wang, 2010. "Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 755-806, October.
  62. Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2012. "Cross-border banking, credit access, and the financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 147-161.
  63. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
  64. Viral V. Acharya & Philipp Schnabl, 2010. "Do Global Banks Spread Global Imbalances? The Case of Asset-Backed Commercial Paper During the Financial Crisis of 2007-09," NBER Working Papers 16079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5849. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.