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Co-movements in EU banks’ fragility: a dynamic factor model approach


  • Andrea Brasili

    (UniCredit Banca d'Impresa)

  • Giuseppe Vulpes

    (UniCredit Banca d'Impresa)


We analyse co-movements in the fragility of EU banks and verify to which extent such co-movements have increased in time, following, for example, the completion of Monetary Union and the introduction of the euro. To this end, we provide a measure of co-movements in bank risk by means of a dynamic factor model, which allows to decompose an indicator of bank fragility, the Distance-to-Default, into three main components: an EU- wide, a country-specific and a bank-level idiosyncratic component. Our results show the commonality in bank risk appears to have significantly increased since 1999, in particular if one concentrates on large banks. This has obvious consequences in terms of systemic stability, but may also have far reaching policy implications with regards to the structuring of banking supervision in Europe (i.e. it increases the scope for supervisory co-operation at EU-wide level). We also believe that co-movements in bank conditions are important for monetary policy since banks still constitute monetary policy’s most important transmission channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Brasili & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Co-movements in EU banks’ fragility: a dynamic factor model approach," Finance 0411011, EconWPA, revised 02 Nov 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0411011
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 37

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Elena Angelini & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 109-138 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    3. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
    4. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2003. "Contagion and interdependence in stock markets: Have they been misdiagnosed?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 405-426.
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    Cited by:

    1. Goddard, John & Molyneux, Philip & Wilson, John O.S. & Tavakoli, Manouche, 2007. "European banking: An overview," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1911-1935, July.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Euro Area Policies; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/288, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Saeed, Momna & Izzeldin, Marwan, 2016. "Examining the relationship between default risk and efficiency in Islamic and conventional banks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 127-154.
    4. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 2014. "Has the global banking system become more fragile over time?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 202-213.
    5. Phil Molyneux & Klaus Schaeck & Tim Zhou, 2011. "‘Too Systemically Important to Fail’ in Banking," Working Papers 11011, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    6. Molyneux, Philip & Schaeck, Klaus & Zhou, Tim Mi, 2014. "‘Too systemically important to fail’ in banking – Evidence from bank mergers and acquisitions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 258-282.

    More about this item


    Co-movements; dynamic factor models; distance-to-default; Systemic risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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