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Forecasting Austrian inflation

  • Moser, Gabriel
  • Rumler, Fabio
  • Scharler, Johann

In this paper we apply factor models proposed by Stock and Watson [18] and VAR and ARIMA models to generate 12-month out of sample forecasts of Austrian HICP inflation and its subindices processed food, unprocessed food, energy, industrial goods and services price inflation. A sequential forecast model selection procedure tailored to this specific task is applied. It turns out that factor models possess the highest predictive accuracy for several subindices and that predictive accuracy can be further improved by combining the information contained in factor and VAR models for some indices. With respect to forecasting HICP inflation, our analysis suggests to favor the aggregation of subindices forecasts. Furthermore, the subindices forecasts are used as a tool to give a more detailed picture of the determinants of HICP inflation from both an ex-ante and ex-post perspective.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 24 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 470-480

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:24:y:2007:i:3:p:470-480
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  2. Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, . "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Elena Angelini & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 109-138 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
  6. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 503-505, December.
  7. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  9. Ashley, Richard, 2003. "Statistically significant forecasting improvements: how much out-of-sample data is likely necessary?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 229-239.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  12. Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Marc-André Gosselin & Greg Tkacz, 2001. "Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada," Working Papers 01-18, Bank of Canada.
  14. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. K. Hubrich, 2001. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does contemponaneous aggregration improve the forecasting performance," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 661, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  16. Friedrich Fritzer & Gabriel Moser & Johann Scharler, 2002. "Forecasting Austrian HICP and its Components using VAR and ARIMA Models," Working Papers 73, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  17. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
  18. Benalal, Nicholai & Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis & Landau, Bettina & Roma, Moreno & Skudelny, Frauke, 2004. "To aggregate or not to aggregate? Euro area inflation forecasting," Working Paper Series 0374, European Central Bank.
  19. Kunst, Robert M., 2003. "Testing for Relative Predictive Accuracy: A Critical Viewpoint," Economics Series 130, Institute for Advanced Studies.
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