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From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area

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  • Mr. Martin Cihak
  • Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks

Abstract

The global financial crisis has highlighted the potential of financial conditions for influencing real economic activity. We examine the linkages between the financial and real sectors in the euro area, finding that (i) bank loan supply responds negatively to declines in bank soundness; (ii) a cutback in bank loan supply has a negative impact on economic activity; (iii) a positive shock to the corporate bond spread lowers industrial output; and (iv) risk indicators for the banking, corporate, and public sectors show an improvement beginning in 2002–03, followed by a major deterioration since 2007. These estimates imply that the currently estimated bank losses would subtract some 2 percentage points from the euro area output (but with considerable uncertainty around the estimates).

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Martin Cihak & Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks, 2009. "From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2009/069, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/069
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    Cited by:

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    2. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4534-4555.
    3. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119, Czech National Bank.
    4. Lena Dräger & Christian R. Proaño, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Business Cycles in Asymmetric Currency Unions," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201501, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    5. Luisa Carpinelli, 2009. "Real effects of banking crises: a survey of the literature," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 55, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    7. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2011. "Macro-finance interactions in the US: A global perspective," Working papers 23, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Kingdom of the Netherlands: Netherlands: 2009 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Direct," IMF Staff Country Reports 2010/034, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Adolfo Barajas & Mr. Heiko Hesse, 2010. "Recent Credit Stagnation in the Mena Region: What to Expect? What Can Be Done?," IMF Working Papers 2010/219, International Monetary Fund.

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