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A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Dale F Gray
  • Ms. Elena Loukoianova
  • Samuel W. Malone
  • Cheng Hoon Lim

Abstract

This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to provide a clear and workable complement to traditional debt sustainability analysis which-although it has many useful applications-suffers from the inability to measure risk exposures, default probabilities and credit spreads. Importantly, this new framework can be adapted for policy analysis, including debt and reserve management.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Dale F Gray & Ms. Elena Loukoianova & Samuel W. Malone & Cheng Hoon Lim, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2008/040, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Indonesia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2006/318, International Monetary Fund.
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    17. Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2006. "Volatility and the Debt-Intolerance Paradox," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1-1.
    18. Ms. Yingbin Xiao & Mr. Dale F Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Michael T. Gapen, 2004. "The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis: Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer," IMF Working Papers 2004/121, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nuno Silva, 2010. "Inter-Sector Relations in the Portuguese Economy: an Application of Contingent," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. repec:ptu:bdpart:a201004 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Arslanalp, Serkan & Liao, Yin, 2014. "Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 316-330.
    4. Paolo M. Panteghini, 2012. "Corporate Debt, Hybrid Securities, and the Effective Tax Rate," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 14(1), pages 161-186, February.
    5. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2017. "Systemic Financial Sector and Sovereign Risks," BCL working papers 109, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    6. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2011. "Sovereign risk and debt sustainability: warning levels for Romania," MPRA Paper 32924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Serkan Arslanalp & Yin Liao, 2013. "Contingent Liabilities and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Banking Sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2013-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2006. "A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of an Economy," NBER Working Papers 12637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Sun, Lixin, 2021. "Quantifying the vulnerabilities of China’s corporate sector with contingent claims," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Firano, Zakaria & Filali adib, Fatine, 2019. "Intersectorial contagion risk in Morocco," MPRA Paper 95343, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Emiliano Delfau, 2018. "Risk Framework Analysis in the Management of Sovereign Debt: The Argentine case," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 634, Universidad del CEMA.
    13. Mr. Martin Cihak & Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks, 2009. "From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2009/069, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Andreas Sachs, 2013. "Governance Structures in Europe. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 2," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47023, February.
    15. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2011. "Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability: A New Framework," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 5, pages 125-157, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Mr. Evan C Tanner, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability: A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed," IMF Working Papers 2013/089, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Ferrarini , Benno & Ramayandi, Arief, 2015. "Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia: An Update," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 468, Asian Development Bank.
    18. António R. Antunes & Nuno Silva & Nuno Ribeiro, 2011. "Towards a CCA-based Systemic Risk Indicator," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    19. Bas van Aarle, 2013. "Surveillance and Control of Fiscal Consolidation on a Supranational Level. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 46," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47021, February.

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    Keywords

    WP; debt; currency debt; risk premium;
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