Sovereign risk and debt sustainability: warning levels for Romania
Despite the governments took rescue and/or stimulus packages, signs of recovery occurring in 2009 and 2010, the global growth sustainability seems uncertain. Romania was hit hard by the crisis, suffering a severe contraction of the economy, estimated at 7.1 percent in 2009. The worsening of the external and internal financial framework of Romania and the danger of a currency market crisis urged the need for a financing agreement with IMF. The study shows that an excessive burden of external debt compared with financing resources needed to comply with the external payments obligations would maintain Romania on the brink of default risk. Collateral risks associated with unfavorable developments of Eurozone and also with pressures coming from a non-restructured public debt could make the default situation even unavoidable.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Non-Linear Modelling in Economics. Beyond Standard Economics (2011): pp. 234-270|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrea Ferrero, 2007. "The long-run determinants of U.S. external imbalances," Staff Reports 295, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Das, Udaibir S. & Papaioannou, Michael G. & Trebesch, Christoph, .
"Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets,"
Chapters in Economics,
University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Udaibir S. Das & Michael G. Papaioannou & Christoph Trebesch, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/10, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008.
"This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,"
CEMA Working Papers
595, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 13882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003.
13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gheorghe Zaman & George Georgescu, 2010. "Romania’s External Debt Sustainability Under Crisis Circumstances," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 30(1(39)), pages 5-38, June.
- Georgescu, George, 2007. "Current Account Deficits and Implications on Country Risk of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(4), pages 88-96, December.
- Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
- Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1998. "Models of Sovereign Debt: Partial versus General Reputations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(1), pages 55-70, February.
- Dale F. Gray & Elena Loukoianova & Samuel W. Malone & Cheng Hoon Lim, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework; Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 08/40, International Monetary Fund.
- Marco Arnone & Luca Bandiera & Andrea Presbitero, 2005. "External Debt Sustainability: Theory and Empirical Evidence," International Finance 0512007, EconWPA.
- Rocher, E., 2007. "New borrowing post-debt relief: risks and challenges for developing countries," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 07, pages 35-48, Spring.
- Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2008. "A simulation model of public debt sustainability," MPRA Paper 11713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2006. "Volatility and the Debt-Intolerance Paradox," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1.
- Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2009. "Structural Fund Absorption: A New Challenge For Romania?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 136-154, March.
- Zaman, Gheorghe & Goschin, Zizi, 2010. "Technical Change as Exogenous or Endogenous Factor in the Production Function Models. Empirical Evidence from Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 29-45, July.
- Helene Poirson Ward & Luca Antonio Ricci & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 04/15, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32924. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.