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Public debt, sovereign risk and sustainable development of Romania

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  • Georgescu, George

Abstract

The rapid increase in the government debt under the circumstances of the global crisis persistence and financial markets volatility raises the need for a new approach of public debt sustainability, including for Romania. Despite more intense contagion effects according to global markets connectivity, the importance of country specificity in the assessment of sovereign risk, which is decisive in dimensioning the borrowing costs, has grown. In the case of Romania, a sharp deterioration of its fiscal framework strength has been observed during post-crisis period, the public debt-to-GDP ratio currently reaching around 40%, thus doubling as compared to 2008. The structural analysis of government debt portfolio highlighted the main drivers of excessive public indebtedness and the increase in refinancing (rollover) risk on short term, which is supposed to overlap with the exchange rate and interest rate risks on medium and long term. Several indicators of Romania’s debt sustainability are already on the warning levels edge which requires appropriate policies focusing on economic growth recovery, fiscal consolidation ongoing, increasing capacity of generating budgetary revenues, public debt management improvement. Maintaining the financial stability and the investment grade of sovereign risk are decisive for the development of Romania on a sustainable path.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgescu, George, 2013. "Public debt, sovereign risk and sustainable development of Romania," MPRA Paper 57256, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57256
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/57256/1/MPRA_paper_57256.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015. "The liquidation of government debt," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
    2. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2011. "Sovereign risk and debt sustainability: warning levels for Romania," MPRA Paper 32924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2016. "Provocări în perioada tranziției la economia de piață în România. Creșterea gradului de îndatorare externă și internă
      [Challenges facing Romania during the period of transition to a market-based ec
      ," MPRA Paper 70740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Georgescu, George, 2017. "Paradigmele istoriei. Datoria publică a României în ultimii 100 de ani
      [History paradigms: the public debt of Romania in the last 100 years]
      ," MPRA Paper 82219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Georgescu, George, 2016. "Prospects of Romania’s international investment position and financial stability risks," MPRA Paper 69501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Georgescu, George, 2015. "Argentina’s sovereign debt default: a critical view," MPRA Paper 62800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Rocsana Tonis (Bucea-Manea), 2015. "SMEs Role in Achieving Sustainable Development," Journal of Economic Development, Environment and People, Alliance of Central-Eastern European Universities, vol. 4(1), pages 41-50, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt; debt sustainability; sovereign risk; sustainable development; financial stability;

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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