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Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean

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  • Craigwell, Roland
  • Greenidge, Kevin
  • Thomas, Chrystal
  • Drakes, Lisa

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in the Caribbean. The main finding is that there exists a threshold debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 55–56 percent. Moreover, the debt dynamics begin changing well before this threshold is reached. Specifically, at debt levels lower than 30 percent of GDP, increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio are associated with faster economic growth. However, as debt rises beyond 30 percent, the effects on economic growth diminishes rapidly and at debt levels reaching 55–56 percent of GDP, the growth impacts switch from positive to negative. Thus, beyond this threshold, debt becomes a drag on growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Craigwell, Roland & Greenidge, Kevin & Thomas, Chrystal & Drakes, Lisa, 2012. "Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean," MPRA Paper 40936, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40936
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    3. Enrique R. Casares & María Guadalupe García-Salazar & Leobardo Pedro Plata Pérez & José Manuel Ramos Varela, 2023. "Deuda externa y crecimiento económico. Una calibración para México," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(3), pages 1-24, Julio - S.
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    5. Charles Amo Yartey & Mr. Machiko Narita & Mr. Shelton M Nicholls & Mr. Joel Chiedu Okwuokei, 2012. "The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2012/276, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jürgen Kaiser, 2016. "Contractual Vs. Rules-Based Approaches to Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 59(1), pages 94-99, June.
    7. Nzeh, Innocent Chile, 2020. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Investigating the Optimal Threshold Level," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(2), pages 112-127, June.
    8. Itchoko motande Mondjeli mwa ndjokou, 2015. "Too much public expenditures, less economic growt," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1985-1991.
    9. Chuan Li & Joyce Wong, 2018. "Financial Development and Inclusion in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2018/053, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
    11. Lau, Evan & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Liew, Kim-Hing, 2022. "Debt and economic growth in Asian developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 599-612.
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    13. Taner Turan & Halit Yanıkkaya, 2021. "External debt, growth and investment for developing countries: some evidence for the debt overhang hypothesis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(3), pages 319-341, September.
    14. Tomás Barrio & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Testing for Periodic Integration with a Changing Mean," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 45-75, June.
    15. Burim Gashi, 2020. "The Impact of Public Debt on the Economic Growth in South Eastern Europe: An Empirical Panel Investigation," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 3-18.
    16. Walid BENAYED & Foued Badr GABSI & Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2015. "Threshold Effect of Public Debt on Domestic Investment: Evidence from Selected African Countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 189-198, Winter.
    17. Taner Turan & Halit Yanikkaya, 2019. "External Debt, Growth and Investment for Developing Countries: The Role of Government Effectiveness," Working Papers 2019-03, Gebze Technical University, Department of Economics.
    18. Shvets, Serhii, 2017. "Internal public debt and economic growth: a case study of Ukraine," MPRA Paper 103873, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    19. D'Andrea, Sara, 2022. "A Meta-Analysis on the Debt-Growth Relationship," MPRA Paper 114409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/259, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt Problems; Debt Threshold; Panel Data; Threshold Regressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

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