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Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States

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  • Ryota Nakatani

    (International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431, USA)

Abstract

How should small states formulate a countercyclical fiscal policy to achieve economic stability and fiscal sustainability when they are prone to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertain donor grants? We study how natural disasters and climate change affect long-term debt dynamics, and we propose cutting-edge fiscal policy rules. We find the primacy of a recurrent expenditure rule based on non-resource and non-grant revenue, interdependently determined by government debt and budget balance targets with expected disaster shocks. This innovative fiscal rule is classified as a natural disaster-resilient fiscal rule, which comprises a plethora of new advantages compared to existing fiscal rules. This new type of fiscal rule can be called as the third-generation fiscal rule. It encompasses natural disasters and climate change, uses budget data only, avoids the need for escape clauses, and operates on a timely basis. Our rule-based fiscal policy framework is practically applicable for many developing countries facing an increasing frequency and impact of devastating natural hazards, and climatic change.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:6:p:3135-:d:515886
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    Cited by:

    1. Ryota Nakatani, 2023. "Productivity drivers of infrastructure companies: Network industries utilizing economies of scale in the digital era," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(4), pages 1273-1298, December.
    2. Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
    3. Nakatani, Ryota, 2021. "Total factor productivity enablers in the ICT industry: A cross-country firm-level analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9).
    4. Nakatani, Ryota & Zhang, Qianqian & Garcia Valdes, Isaura, 2023. "Health Expenditure Decentralization and Health Outcomes: The Importance of Governance," MPRA Paper 118062, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Food companies' productivity dynamics: Exploring the role of intangible assets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 185-226, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal rule; natural disaster; climate change; Pacific Islands; debt sustainability; recurrent expenditure; countercyclical fiscal policy; Papua New Guinea; resource revenue; grants;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q22 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Fishery
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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