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Fiscal rules and fiscal counter-cyclicality

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  • Jalles, João Tovar

Abstract

We assess the effect of fiscal rules on a new time-varying measure of fiscal counter-cyclicality computed for 60 countries over the period 1980–2014. First, we find that fiscal counter-cyclicality is positive and has been increasing over time, being larger in advanced economies. Second, we find that fiscal rules reduce the degree of fiscal counter-cyclicality. The result is especially strong for debt-based rules in advanced economies. Some design features hinder the degree of fiscal counter-cyclicality (such as escape clauses or enforcement procedures), while others (such as transparency) foster it.

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  • Jalles, João Tovar, 2018. "Fiscal rules and fiscal counter-cyclicality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 159-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:170:y:2018:i:c:p:159-162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.06.020
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    Cited by:

    1. Christos Chrysanthakopoulos & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2024. "Tax policy cyclicality and financial development," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 48-57.
    2. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    3. Siwińska-Gorzelak, Joanna, 2024. "The impact of fiscal rules on cross-border bank claims," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2020. "The political economy of fiscal procyclicality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2024. "The medium-term effects of fiscal policy rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Ryota Nakatani, 2019. "A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands — Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change," IMF Working Papers 2019/186, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Yuchen Lin & Daxin Dong & Jiaxin Wang, 2021. "The Negative Impact of Uncertainty on R&D Investment: International Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Afonso, António & Carvalho, Francisco Tiago, 2022. "Time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy: The case of the Euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
    10. João Tovar Jalles & Youssouf Kiendrebeogo & Raphael Lam & Roberto Piazza, 2024. "Revisiting the countercyclicality of fiscal policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 877-914, September.
    11. Giovanni Carnazza & Emilio Carnevali, 2024. "Days of future past? The reform of the European fiscal framework, the (enduring) role of the structural balance and the pro-cyclical bias of potential GDP endogeneity," Discussion Papers 2024/306, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    12. Ringa Raudla & James W. Douglas, 2021. "Structural Budget Balance as a Fiscal Rule in the European Union—Good, Bad, or Ugly?," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 121-141, March.
    13. Thomas Brändle & Marc Elsener, 2024. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey of recent evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-38, December.
    14. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2023. "Fiscal rules and tax policy cyclicality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    15. António Afonso & Francisco Tiago Carvalho, 2021. "Euro area time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy," Working Papers REM 2021/0202, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal rules; Weighted least squares; Time-varying coefficients; Fiscal stabilization; Government size; Filtering;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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