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Time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy: The case of the Euro area

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  • Afonso, António
  • Carvalho, Francisco Tiago

Abstract

We assess the cyclicality of fiscal policy in the 19 Euro area countries, notably during recessions, for the period 1995–2020. We use a time-varying measure of fiscal cyclicality to describe fiscal policy developments. The results suggest that during recessions discretionary fiscal policy becomes more pro-cyclical, but the overall budget balance becomes more counter-cyclical. Hence, pursuing a Ricardian fiscal regime by more indebted countries leads to higher counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy. Government size reduces counter-cyclicality, as well as trade openness, and financial development has a positive impact on counter-cyclicality.

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Carvalho, Francisco Tiago, 2022. "Time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy: The case of the Euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:62:y:2022:i:c:s106294082200119x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2022.101778
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Cyclicality; Time-varying coefficient; Euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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