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The Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters: The Case of Floods

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  • Juncal Cunado
  • Susana Ferreira

Abstract

We use panel vector autoregression models to trace the dynamic response of output growth to flood shocks, using new data on large flood events in 135 countries between 1985 and 2008. Flood shocks tend to have a positive and significant average impact on per capita GDP growth. However, this effect is limited to developing countries and to moderate floods. The positive impact of floods is larger and more significant in the agricultural sector; while floods seem to have a direct effect on agricultural growth rates in developing countries, their effect on nonagricultural growth rates is mainly indirect.

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  • Juncal Cunado & Susana Ferreira, 2014. "The Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters: The Case of Floods," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(1), pages 149-168.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:90:y:2014:i:1:p:149-168
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    13. Mensah, Edouard R. & Filipski, Mateusz J., 2022. "Saving for a rainy day: the impact of natural disasters on savings rates," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322266, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Emilio Fernández Corugedo & Andres Gonzalez & Mr. Alejandro D Guerson, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Returns of Investment in Resilience to Natural Disasters under Climate Change: A DSGE Approach," IMF Working Papers 2023/138, International Monetary Fund.
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    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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