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Do National Numerical Fiscal Rules really shape fiscal behaviours in developing countries? A treatment effect evaluation

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Listed author(s):
  • Tapsoba, René

Abstract

This paper analyses the effect of National Numerical Fiscal Rules (FRs) upon fiscal discipline in 74 developing countries over the period 1990–2007. It is the first study that assesses the impact of FRs on budgetary outcomes while controlling for the self-selection problem. It finds that the effect of FRs on structural fiscal balance is significantly positive, robust to a variety of alternative specifications, and varies with the type of FRs. It also finds that the treatment effect differs according to countries' characteristics: number of FRs, time length since FRs adoption, presence of supranational FRs, government fractionalisation and government stability.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999312000594
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1356-1369

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:4:p:1356-1369
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.03.003
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Keywords: Fiscal Rules; Fiscal discipline; Treatment effect; Propensity scores-matching; Developing countries;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
  • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
  • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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  1. Sophia Gollwitzer & Eteri Kvintradze & Tej Prakash & Luis-Felipe Zanna & Era Dabla-Norris & Richard I Allen & Irene Yackovlev & Victor Duarte Lledo, 2010. "Budget Institutions and Fiscal Performance in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/80, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
  3. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
  4. Ezequiel Cabezon & Tej Prakash, 2008. "Public Financial Management and Fiscal Outcomes in Sub-Saharan African Heavily-Indebted Poor Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/217, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 65-113, 04.
  6. Alesina, Alberto & Hausmann, Ricardo & Hommes, Rudolf & Stein, Ernesto, 1999. "Budget institutions and fiscal performance in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 253-273, August.
  7. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  8. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "A Historical Public Debt Database," IMF Working Papers 10/245, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules in the US states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 101-117, January.
  10. Xavier Debrun & Laurent Moulin & Alessandro Turrini & Joaquim Ayuso-i-Casals & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2008. "Tied to the mast? National fiscal rules in the European Union," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 297-362, 04.
  11. George Kopits & Steven A. Symansky, 1998. "Fiscal Policy Rules," IMF Occasional Papers 162, International Monetary Fund.
  12. von Hagen, Jurgen & Harden, Ian J., 1995. "Budget processes and commitment to fiscal discipline," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 771-779, April.
  13. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
  14. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 2002. "Propensity Score-Matching Methods For Nonexperimental Causal Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 151-161, February.
  15. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
  16. George Kopits, 2001. "Fiscal Rules; Useful Policy Framework or Unnecessary Ornament?," IMF Working Papers 01/145, International Monetary Fund.
  17. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2008. "The Choice of Fiscal Regimes in the World," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 487, Central Bank of Chile.
  18. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-31, March.
  19. James M. Poterba, 1996. "Do Budget Rules Work?," NBER Working Papers 5550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra Todd, 1998. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 261-294.
  21. Sophia Gollwitzer, 2011. "Budget Institutions and Fiscal Performance in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 20(1), pages 111-152, January.
  22. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
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Cited by:

  1. Christian Ebeke & M Mansour & Grégoire Rota-Graziosi, 2016. "The Power to Tax in Sub-Saharan Africa: LTUs, VATs, and SARAs," Working Papers halshs-01332049, HAL.
  2. Heinemann, Friedrich & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Yeter, Mustafa, 2015. "Do Fiscal Rules Constrain Fiscal Policy? A Meta-Regression-Analysis," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112800, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  3. Zareh Asatryan & César Castellón & Thomas Stratmann, 2016. "Balanced Budget Rules and Fiscal Outcomes: Evidence from Historical Constitutions," CESifo Working Paper Series 5893, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Christian Mumssen & Yasemin Bal Gunduz & Christian H Ebeke & Linda Kaltani, 2013. "IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries; Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term," IMF Working Papers 13/273, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Pierre Mandon, 2014. "Evaluating Treatment Effect and Causal Effect of Fiscal Rules on Procyclicality New assessments on old debate: rules vs. discretion," Working Papers halshs-01015756, HAL.
  6. Chakraborty, Pinaki & Dash, Bharatee Bhusana, 2013. "Fiscal Reforms, Fiscal Rule and Development Spending: How Indian States have Performed?," Working Papers 13/122, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  7. Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2015. "National numerical fiscal rules: Not complied with, but still effective?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 67-81.
  8. repec:eee:jmacro:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:189-220 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Pierre MANDON, 2014. "Evaluating Treatment Effect and Causal Effect of Fiscal Rules on Procyclicality New assessments on old debate: rules vs. discretion," Working Papers 201414, CERDI.
  10. Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2017. "Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-45.
  11. Jean-Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea & Rene Tapsoba, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Fiscal Rules; Do Interactions and Sequencing Matter?," IMF Working Papers 14/89, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Calixte Ahokpossi & Laurence Allain & Giovanna Bua, 2014. "A Constrained Choice? Impact of Concessionality Requirements on Borrowing Behavior," IMF Working Papers 14/176, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Martine Guerguil & Pierre Mandon & Rene Tapsoba, 2016. "Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 16/8, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Pierre Mandon, 2014. "Evaluating Treatment Effect and Causal Effect of Fiscal Rules on Procyclicality New assessments on old debate: rules vs. discretion," Working Papers halshs-01015760, HAL.

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