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Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia: An Update

Author

Listed:
  • Benno Ferrarini

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Arief Ramayandi

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

Our previous assessment of debt sustainability in developing Asia, conducted in 2011, found that the region’s fiscal outlook was mostly benign. In this study we update the debt sustainability assessment, taking stock of the latest data and including a larger number of countries. With the benefit of hindsight, we assess the accuracy of our earlier debt ratio forecasts and the underlying macroeconomic assumptions. By and large, we find that standard debt sustainability analysis (DSA) represents a valid forecasting tool, able to predict debt ratios fairly accurately under reasonable assumptions and circumstances. Further, our fan chart analysis confirms the importance for stochastic analysis to integrate standard DSA, in order to capture heightened macroeconomic volatility, which we observe for some countries in the region. Looking forward to 2020, debt ratio projections confirm that the outlook remains benign for the region as a whole, country heterogeneity notwithstanding. On the issue of DSA methods and implementation, we emphasize the importance of macroeconomic forecast accuracy and suggest that volatility be captured by risk analysis tools that would optimally flank the standard DSA framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Benno Ferrarini & Arief Ramayandi, 2015. "Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia: An Update," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 468, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0468
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Dale F Gray & Ms. Elena Loukoianova & Samuel W. Malone & Cheng Hoon Lim, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2008/040, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Charles Adams & Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 205, Asian Development Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan, 2013. "Long-term Issues for Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Asia," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 751-770, September.
    2. Bart W. Edes & Peter J. Morgan, 2014. "Managing Fiscal Sustainability and Aging in Emerging Asia," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 319-348, August.
    3. Duy-Tung Bui, 2018. "Fiscal policy and national saving in emerging Asia: challenge or opportunity?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 305-322, August.
    4. Rathnayake, Anuruddhi Shanika K, 2020. "Sustainability of the fiscal imbalance and public debt under fiscal policy asymmetries in Sri Lanka," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2017. "Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-45.
    6. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Khee Giap Tan & Kong Yam Tan, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability in selected developing ASEAN economies," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(4/5/6), pages 186-203.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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