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Forecasting The Romanian Financial System Stability Using A Stochastic Simulation Model

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  • Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu

    () (CRIEF, University of Poitiers, France)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to develop an aggregate stability index for the Romanian financial system, which is meant to enhance the set of analysis used by authorities to assess the financial system stability. The index takes into consideration indicators related to financial system development, vulnerability, soundness and also indicators which characterise the international economic climate. Another purpose of our study is to forecast the financial stability level, using a stochastic simulation model. The outcome of the study shows an improvement of the Romanian financial system stability during the period 1999-2007. The constructed aggregate index captures the financial turbulences periods like the 1998-1999 Romanian banking crisis and 2007 subprime crisis. The forecasted values of the index show a deterioration of financial stability in 2009, influenced by the estimated decline in the financial and economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2010. "Forecasting The Romanian Financial System Stability Using A Stochastic Simulation Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 81-98, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:1:p:81-98
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123 Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Jan Willem van den End, 2006. "Indicator and boundaries of financial stability," DNB Working Papers 097, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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    5. Philippe D Karam & Douglas Hostland, 2006. "Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/268, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2002. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 521-538, October.
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    8. Adam Gersl & Jaroslav Hermanek, 2007. "Financial Stability Indicators: Advantages and Disadvantages of their Use in the Assessment of Financial System Stability," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2006, chapter 0, pages 69-79 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    9. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49 Bank for International Settlements.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bors ISAC, 2015. "VAR Methodology in Assessment of the Financial Stability," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 93-98.
    2. Kristína Kočišová & Daniel Stavárek, 2015. "Banking Stability Index: New EU countries after Ten Years of Membership," Working Papers 0024, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.
    3. Petr Jakubík & Tomáš Slacík, 2013. "Measuring Financial (In)Stability in Emerging Europe: A New Index-Based Approach," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 25, pages 102-117.
    4. Ini S Udom & Sani Ibrahim Doguwa, 2015. "Generating a composite index to support monetary and financial stability analysis in Nigeria," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Indicators to support monetary and financial stability analysis: data sources and statistical methodologies, volume 39 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Amalia Cristescu & Maria Denisa Vasilescu & Larisa Stanila & Madalina Ecaterina Popescu, 2013. "Regional Analysis Of The Real Earnings In Romania," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-78, DECEMBER.
    6. Claudiu Tiberiu ALBULESCU, 2011. "Macro-Financial Risks and Central Banks: What Changes Has the Crisis Triggered?," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 135-142.
    7. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2013. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: A Reduced-Form Model for the EURO Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 62-81, March.
    8. Isadora LAZAR & Madalina Ecaterina ANDREICA, 2013. "Current Account Balance, Private Debt And Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis: A Comparison Of North And South," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 37(2(46)), pages 40-52, December.
    9. Mirna Dumičić, 2016. "Financial Stability Indicators – The Case of Croatia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 5(1), pages 113-140.
    10. Andreica, Madalina Ecaterina & Andreica, Marin, 2014. "Forecast of Romanian Industry Employment using Simulation and Panel Data Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, pages 130-140.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stability; aggregate financial stability index; forecasting systemic stability; stochastic simulation model;

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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